Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week 1
After one of the strangest summers ever—dominated by NIL, the transfer portal, and out-of-control conference realignment--we are mercifully starting the games.
There’s not a whole great stuff on this week’s first board but it should be noted that North Carolina vs. South Carolina (Saturday in Charlotte) and Florida State-LSU (Sunday in Orlando) are both field goal games.
Still, looking at some of these point spreads I feel confident that you are going to be entertained on this Labor Day weekend. And, dear readers, isn’t that the point?
Here we go:
Tennessee giving 28 over Virginia.
After an impressive win over Clemson in the Orange Bowl to finish 11-2, Tennessee and its fans are more than a little jacked up for the 2023 season to begin. In this game all eyes will be on Volunteer quarterback Joe Milton, who takes over for Hendon Hooker. Milton has a powerful arm but we wonder if he can consistently make the variety of throws that are needed in this offense. Virginia was 3-9 in 2022, Tony Elliott’s first year as head coach. The game is being played in Nashville. I’ll take Tennessee to cover the 28.
Auburn giving 35 over UMass (1-0)
UMass played last week, beating New Mexico State 41-30. Auburn plays its first game under new head coach Hugh Freeze and we all want to know what he is going to do at quarterback. Payton Thorne, the transfer from Michigan State, did not join the team until after spring practice, which always throws up a red flag. Robbie Ashford is very athletic and he will certainly get some snaps. Auburn wins but they don’t cover the 35.
Georgia giving 44.5 over UT-Martin.
Georgia begins the pursuit of a historic third-straight national championship. The Bulldogs also will be starting a new quarterback in fourth-year junior Carson Beck. It will be interesting to see how quickly Georgia Coach Kirby Smart gets his backups in the game. Georgia covers the 44.5 and starts getting ready for Ball State. The Bulldogs open the SEC schedule on Sept. 16 against South Carolina in Athens.
Alabama giving 39.5 over Middle Tennessee State.
This much we know: After a summer of speculation, Alabama will have a starting quarterback when the Crimson Tide opens the season against the Blue Raiders. I think the starter will be Jalen Milroe because he’s a little more athletic than Ty Simpson and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner. But understand that this game is all about getting the Alabama team ready for next week’s game with Texas in Tuscaloosa. Alabama covers the 39.5
North Carolina giving 2.5 over South Carolina in Charlotte.
The two best quarterback matchups of the first full weekend of college football are North Carolina’s Drake Maye vs. South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Florida State’s Jordan Travis vs. LSU’s Jayden Daniels. The temptation is to take South Carolina because of the great finish by the Gamecocks in 2022. But right now I think the Tar Heels are a more complete team than the Gamecocks. I may regret this pick but I’m taking North Carolina to win by a field goal.
LSU giving 2.5 vs. Florida State in Orlando.
Florida State won last year’s meeting (24-23) in New Orleans where the Tigers just didn’t look like a vey well-coached team. LSU got better and went on to win the SEC West. This LSU team, in its second year under Brian Kelly, is way ahead of that team. The loser of this game can still rebound and make the College Football Playoffs. But its margin for error is pretty much gone. The game is being played in Orlando but I still like LSU to win and to cover.