Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week 5
After doing the impossible--two straight weeks of 0-6-we got back to a reasonable 4-2 last week.
Thanks to Texas A&M, who covered 7.5 against Auburn; Alabama, who covered seven in a 24-10 win against Ole Miss; South Carolina, who covered six (just barely) against Mississippi State (37-30), and Kentucky, who covered 13.5 against Vanderbilt (48-17).
The misses were LSU only winning by three (34-31) at home and Clemson, who was a home underdog by 2.5, losing straight up by seven (31-24) to Florida State.
We arer still in a deep hole at 17-7 but, for a week at least, we stopped digging.
Because the SEC is playing nothing but conference games on Saturday, we're going to pick seven instead of our normal six.
So here we go:
Florida (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0) (giving 3:) For the third straight year Kentucky has started 4-0. The Wildcats have beaten a ranked Florida team for two straight seasons and three times since 2018. And it wasn't that long ago, gentle readers, that the Gators had beaten Kentucky 31 straight times.
But not now. Kentucky has a new quarterback in Devin Leary, a transfer from N.C. State, and running back Ray Davis, a transfer from Vanderbilt. The winner of this game becomes the prrimary challenger to Georgia in the SEC East.
I don't see Florida marching into Kroger Field and winning. I'll take Kentucky and give the three.
Texas A&M (3-1) vs. Arkansas (3-2) (getting 6.5) at Arlington, TX. Despite the loss of quarterback Conner Weigman for the rest of the season, Texas A&M is a 6.5 favorite playing the Hogs at Jerry's World. That's because in Max Johnson, a former starter at LSU, the Aggies have a solid backup who played well when he came off the bench last week against Auburn. Arkansas played their hearts out against LSU last week, losing 34-31. I wonder how much the Hogs have left in the tank. That's why I'm taking the Aggies and giving the 6.5.
Georgia (4-0) at Auburrn (3-1) (getting 14). The two-time defending national champions have yet to put together four consecutive good quarters but I think the Bulldogs are getting close. Georgia has won six straight against Auburn in the oldest continuous rivaly in the Deep South. Auburn only threw for 56 yards last week against Texas A&M while using three quarterbacks. Hugh Freeze hasn't found a quarterback that he completely trusts and right now he just doesn't have any real answers on offense. Dawgs win and cover the 14.
Missouri (4-0) at Vanderbilt (2-3) (getting 13.5): Missouri is playing some of its best football since Eli Drinkwitz came to Columbia. Wide receiver Luther Burden III is starting to live up to his promise with 177 yards receiving last week against Memphis. Quarterback Brady Cook had 341 yards passing last week. The Tigers move to 5-0, cover 13.5 points, and statrt getting ready for a monster game next week with LSU in COMO. I
LSU (3-1) at Ole Miss (3-1) (getting 2.5): Ole Miss felt like it missed a golden opportunity last week in losing to Alabama 24-10. Now the Rebels need to find a way to win at home over LSU, which won a 34-31 street fight against Arkansas last week. This is a matchup of two really good quarterbacks--LSU's Jayden Daniels and Jaxon Dart of Ole Miss. They will keep the game close. Ole Miss knows another SEC West loss pretty much eliminates them from a trip to Alanta. In a wild one, LSU wins and covers the 2.5.
South Carolina (2-2) at Tennessee (3-1) (giving 12.5). Tennessee is going to win this game because the Volunteers simply can not start 0-2 in the SEC East. But covering 12.5 against one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country is another thing. The Gamecocks Spencer Rattler completed his first 13 passes last week against Mississippi State. He finished the game completing 18 of 20 passes in a 37-30 win. Last year Rattler was incredible against the Vols, completing 30 of 37 passes for 428 yards and six touchdowns in a 63-38.
So while Tennessee is going to win, I don't see the Vols covering the 12.5. I'll take South Carolina and the points.
Alabama (3-1) at Mississippi State (2-2) (getting 14.5)
Alabama put together a solid, but not flashy, performance last week as quarterback Jalen Milroe completed 17 of 21 passes for 225 yards. Alabama also had a back (Jase McClellan) to go over 100 yards. Last week Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers got back to his old form, throwing for 487 yards (a career high) in a 37-30 loss to South Carolina.
Alabama has won 15 straight games against Mississippi State and will win this one. But will they cover 14.5 with a conservative offense?
I'm saying yes. The Alabama defense will score--at least once.