Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week No. 4
I really believe I'm overthinking this thing.
For the second straight week your humble prognosticator went 0-6 against the spread.
No. 1 Georgia was a 27.5-point favorite at home against South Carolina but the Bulldogs got off to a slow start. They dominated the second half and won comortably (24-14). But they didn't cover.
Tennessee was a 6.5-point favorite playing at Florida, where the Vols had lost nine straight. But we had seen nothing from the Gators that would give us confidence so I took the Vols and gave the points. Florida won straight up, 29-16.
And on it goes.
I expected LSU to win an 11 a.m. game at Mississippi State but I didn't think the Tigers would cover the 9.5. They won by 27, 41-14.
The dumbest pick I made last week was Alabama covering 32.5 at South Florida. The Crimson Tide was struggling on so many levels I should have known there was no way they would score 32 points. Just dumb.
That's enough agony for now.
So through three weeks we are a crowd-pleasing 3-15. It is going to be a long road back.
Carry on.
Auburn (3-0) at Texas A&M (2-1) (giving 7.5): It's the SEC opener for both teams. The Aggies (2-1) bounced back after a bad loss (48-33) loss at Miami to beat ULM 47-3. Auburn has beaten UMass, Cal, and Samford in its first seasib under Hugh Freeze
I'm leaning towards Texas A&M because the Aggies are at home and Auburn has turned it over seven times in three games. Texas A&M wins at home and covers the 7.5
Ole Miss (3-0) at Alabama (2-1) (giving 7). Given all the drama at Alabama, I'm a little surprised at this number. This one is prretty simple. The Crimson Tide has to get its act together and find a way to take advantage of Jalen Milroe's skill set. I am so tempted to take Ole Miss in this game but I just can't see Lane Kiffin marching into Bryant-Denny Stadium and coming out with a win. I will say this: This is Lane's best chance ever to beat his old boss. Still, Alabama wins and covers the 7.
Mississippi State (2-1) at South Carolina (1-2) (giving 6):
Mississippi State got taken to the woodshed last week against LSU in Starkville so it will be interesting to see how--or if--the Bulldogs bounce back on the road. South Carolina put a scare into Geogia early in Athens last Saturday but Kirby Smart's team dominated the second half. Therre are two pretty good quarterbacks here in Mississippi State's Will Rogers and South Carolina's Spencer Rattler. I'll take the Gamecocks at home to cover the six.
Kentucky (3-0) (giving 13.5) at Vanderbilt (2-2)
Kentucky opens SEC play after beating Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron in their first three games. The Wildcats, who lost to Vanderbilt last season, have upgraded their offense with the additions of quarterback Devin Leary (N.C. State) and Ray Davis,(7.15 yards per carry) a quality running back from Vanderbilt. It will be interesting to see how Davis does against his old team. Kentucky wins and covers the 14 with a big game with Florida next week in Lexington.
Arkansas (2-1) at LSU (2-1) (giving 17.5)
LSU was most impressive last week in beating Mississippi Statee 41-14 in Starkville. Quarterrback Jayden Daniels had over 400 yards of total offense and completed 34 of 40 passes. The Razorbacks led BYU by 10 points in the third quarter but BYU put on a 17-0 run to win the game 38-31. Arkansas and Sam Pittman could really use this one but I don't see it. LSU wins and covers the 18 at home.
Florida State (3-0) at Clemson (2-1) (getting 2.5): Clemson has not been a home underdog very often in Dabo Swinney's tenure. But the Tigers are a 2.5-point underdog to Florida State in a game Clemson MUST win or face the fact that it will be out of the CFP race before September is over. Florida State opened the season with an impressive win overr LSU. The game will come down to the quarterbacks--Florida State's Jordan Travis and Clemson's Cade Klubnik Both have thrown for about 700 yards in their first three games. I think Florida State is more talented but Clemson is at home and has no margin for error. I'll take Clemson and the points.