Mr. CFB Pick Six: Bowl Games
We headed into conference championship Saturday on Dec. 19 with a 40-44 record and hoped for a Hail Mary that would get us back to .500 for the season.
No such luck:
**—Alabama beat Florida (52-46) but didn’t cover 17 ½.
**—Missouri had won six of its last seven but somehow lost to hapless Mississippi State (51-32).
**—I thought Clemson would beat Notre Dame in the ACC championship game but not cover 10 ½. The Tigers won by 24 (34-10)
Bottom line: It was another 2-4 finish which gives us a season record of 42-48 OTS.
Since I’m reasonably familiar with math that means that your humble scribe must go 6-0 in his New Year’s Six picks.
Well, we can dream, can’t we?
Hey, I’m just glad we are here. Back in July a lot of smart people I know weren’t sure we would get to bowl season. And now we’re almost to the CFP semifinals on New Year’s Day.
So let’s have fun. On with the picks of the New Year’s Day Six:
CFP NATIONAL SEMI-FINALS
The game: Rose Bowl—Alabama (11-0) vs. Notre Dame (10-1) (plus 19 ½), Jan. 1, 5 p.m., Arlington, Tex., ESPN.
The winner: Alabama.
The score: Alabama 47, Notre Dame 23.
The skinny: The last time these two teams played with national championship implications it was men versus boys. Alabama dominated the Irish 42-14 down in South Florida for the 2012 BCS national championship. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly knew he was going to have to get bigger and faster in order to compete at Alabama’s level. Kelly has done that as the Irish have posted their fourth straight season of 10 wins or more. But there is a problem: Alabama has taken its offense to yet another level (49.7 points per game) the season and nobody has been able to slow them down. You have to score 45 just to have a chance to beat Alabama. Notre Dame isn’t built to score 45. Tide rolls and covers.
The game: Sugar Bowl—Clemson (10-1) vs. Ohio State (6-0) (plus 7 ½), Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. , New Orleans, ESPN.
The winner: Clemson.
The score: Clemson 38, Ohio State 24.
The skinny: This one has a little juice to it. First there was the post-game rant by Coach Ryan Day in the Ohio State locker room after the Buckeyes beat Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game. “Give us one game against Clemson, against Alabama, against Notre Dame and we’ll beat their ass," Day said. The speech was leaked on the internet.
Then Clemson coach Dabo Swinney voted Ohio State No. 11 in his final coach’s poll because the Buckeyes only played six games to get into the playoff. And this week he did not back down from it.
But here’s the bottom line. Clemson is really good when quarterback Trevor Lawrence is healthy and the Tigers are focused. Both will be the case on Friday.
Ohio State is good on defense but not great like the Buckeyes were last season. It will take great to handle Clemson. The Tigers roll to the national championship game.
THE REST
The game: Cotton Bowl—Florida (8-3) vs. Oklahoma (9-2) (plus 3 ½), Dec. 30, Arlington, Tex., 7:15 p.m., ESPN.
The winner: Florida.
The score: Florida 37, Oklahoma 31
The skinny: Outside of Joe Burrow, the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner, no SEC quarterback has had a year quite like Florida’s Kyle Trask. Trask, one of four finalists for the 2020 Heisman Trophy, threw for 4,125 yards and 43 touchdowns with only five interceptions. He completed 69.7 percent of his passes. Oklahoma started 1-2 with losses to Kansas State and Iowa State. The Sooners have since won seven straight Big 12 games. But there are problems for the Gators as some key players—including tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receivers Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes—have opted out of the game. Are those Florida losses enough for Oklahoma to win? I’ll stick with the Gators but I’m a little nervous about it.
The game: Peach Bowl—Georgia (7-2) vs. Cincinnati (9-0) (plus 7 ½) Jan. 1, Noon, Atlanta, ESPN.
The winner: Georgia.
The score: Georgia 24, Cincinnati 14.
The skinny: A big part of picking bowl games is determining who wants to be there. This we know: The Bearcats of the American Athletic Conference very much want to be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium playing against one of the top brand names from the SEC. Cincinnati has a very underrated quarterback in Desmond Ridder, who was fourth in the AAC in total offense (299.9 ypg). Georgia, which is going for its fourth straight Top 10 finish under Kirby Smart, has been playing much better since USC Transfer J.T. Daniels took over at quarterback in the final three games. At No. 8 nationally (310.8 ypg), this will be the best defense Daniels has faced. With a win, this Georgia senior class would finish with a record of 44-9. That would tie the Georgia record for most wins by a senior class.
The game: Fiesta Bowl—Iowa State (8-3) vs. Oregon (4-2) (plus 4 ½), Jan. 2, 4 p.m., Glendale, Ariz., ESPN
The winner: Iowa State
The score: Iowa State 27, Oregon 21.
The skinny: It has been a mixed bag in 2020 for both these teams. Iowa State started the season by getting beat soundly (31-14) at home by Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt. Then they won eight of their next nine, which included victories over Oklahoma (37-30) and Texas (23-20). Iowa State then got a rematch with Oklahoma for the Big 12 championship and lost 27-21. Oregon finished second to Washington in the Pac-12 North but got to play USC for the championship (and won) when the Huskies were grounded by COVID. I like the Cyclones with a late touchdown to win and cover.
The game: Orange Bowl—North Carolina (8-3) (plus 7 ½) vs. Texas A&M (8-1), Jan. 2, 8 p.m., Miami, ESPN.
The winner: Texas A&M.
The score: Texas A&M 38, North Carolina 30.
The skinny: This one should be a lot of fun. North Carolina’s offense, which is led by sophomore quarterback Sam Howell, is sixth nationally in scoring averaging 43 points per game. The last time the Tar Heels were on this field they steamrolled Miami 62-26 and rushed for 554 yards and passed for 224 more. They have one of the best running combos in college football in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, who combined for 2,385 yards rushing. But both have opted out of the game. Texas A&M lost its second game of the year to Alabama 52-24) and did not lose again. The Aggies finished third in the SEC in scoring defense (21.1) and second in rushing offense (202.89 ypg). Texas A&M will control the clock. The Aggies lead the SEC in time of possession (35.05 minutes per game).