Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week 16
Okay. The pressure is on.
Your humble scribe went 3-3 last week, leaving us at 40-44 ATS for the season.
The math is simple. We have to go 5-1 to finish with a .500 record.
So we’re going to pick four SEC games plus the ACC championship and the Big Ten championship as we close out the regular season.
Wish me luck. Let’s get on with the picks.
SEC championship: Alabama (10-0) vs. Florida (8-2) (plus 17 ½), 8 pm ET, CBS
The winner: Alabama.
The score: Alabama 49, Florida 24.
The skinny: This is a mindset game if there ever was one. Alabama is ranked No. 1 and gets into the playoffs even it loses. But there is a reason the Crimson Tide has dominated opponents by an average score of 50-17 this season. Even with a win over Alabama, it’s hard to see the Gators getting into the playoffs. They blew that opportunity with an inexplicable home loss last week to LSU, a 23-point underdog. If Alabama jumps up early in this game—and it will—the Gators will not recover. The Crimson Tide easily covers and moves on to the playoffs.
The game: Texas A&M (8-1) at Tennessee (3-6) (plus 14 ½ ), Noon, ESPN
The winner: Texas A&M.
The score: Texas A&M 31, Tennessee 13.
The skinny: Sitting at No. 5 in the CFP rankings, Texas A&M knows that its path to the playoffs is a narrow one. First, the Aggies have to take care of Tennessee, which had lost six straight games before last week’s 42-17 win over Vanderbilt. Texas A&M not only needs to win, it needs to do it with style points. Then Texas A&M has to hope that either No. 3 Clemson (vs. Notre Dame) or No. 4 Ohio State (vs. Northwestern) loses in its conference championship game. Can both of those things happen? In 2020, my friend, anything is possible.
The game: Ole Miss (4-5) at LSU (4-5) (plus 2 ½), 3:30 pm, SEC Network.
The winner: Ole Miss.
The score: Ole Miss 38, LSU 35.
The skinny: All week long Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin told his players that by beating LSU at Tiger Stadium, something the Rebels haven’t done since 2008, would be a memory they would savor for the rest of their lives. This is going to be a high-scoring game because the defenses are so bad. LSU got a huge upset win at Florida last week (37-34) and it remains to be seen if the Tigers will carry that momentum into this game. There was some bad late-breaking news for Ole Miss: Wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yaboah opted out of the game on Thursday. Not good.
Still, we opened the season watching Mississippi State torch the LSU secondary. I think we end it the same way. Rebels win on a late field goal.
The game: Missouri (5-4) at Mississippi State (2-7) (plus 1 ½), 3:30 p.m. SEC Network Alternate
The winner: Missouri.
The score: Missouri 27, Mississippi State 24.
The skinny: It has been quite a wild ride for Eli Drinkwitz, the first-year head coach at Missouri. The Tigers lost their first two games to Alabama and Tennessee and then went with a new quarterback, freshman Connor Bazelak. Since then Missouri is 6-2 with the two losses coming to No. 7 Florida and No. 8 Georgia. But if Missouri wins and gets to 6-4, it will be the second-most conference wins the Tigers have had since joining the league in 2012. Mississippi State has won only one game since Sept. 26 and that was by seven points to Vanderbilt. Not good. The game is in Starkville so don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs keep it close. But Missouri has shown a knack for winning close games this season. The Tigers win and cover the 1 1/2.
ACC championship: Notre Dame (10-0) (plus 10 ½) vs. Clemson (9-1), 4 p.m., ABC
The winner: Notre Dame.
The score: Clemson 34, Notre Dame 30.
The skinny: These two teams played a classic game on Nov. 7 in South Bend, Ind., with Notre Dame winning 47-40. But the Tigers were without quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the Heisman Trophy candidate. In that game Notre Dame shut down the run, holding Travis Etienne to only 28 yards on 18 carries. Freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards and two touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough. I was tempted to pick Clemson to cover, but I keep remembering that Notre Dame held North Carolina’s high-powered offense to only 17 points. So, Clemson wins but the Tigers don’t cover.
Big Ten championship: Ohio State (5-0) vs. Northwestern (6-1) (plus 20 ½), Noon, FOX
The winner: Northwestern.
The score: Ohio State 31, Northwestern 17.
The skinny: For Ohio State, the path is pretty simple. Beat Northwestern convincingly and the Buckeyes get into the College Football Playoffs despite playing only six games. Truth be told, even a close win over Northwestern probably gets Ohio State in. But keep this in mind: This season Northwestern has given up only 102 points, an average of 14.6 points per game. The Wildcats use that defense to keep the score closer than the experts think. But at the end of the day Justin Fields and the Ohio State offense score enough points to win and put the Buckeyes in the playoffs.