Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week 7
We bounced back a little last week with a record of 4-2 ATS.
The misses:
I thought Texas A&M would keep it close at home against Florida, but I didn’t think the Aggies had the right stuff to win straight up. I was wrong. Kellen Mond played his best game in his time at College Station and Jimbo Fisher got his first win against a Top Five team as the head coach.
I picked Auburn to win straight up at home against Arkansas and cover the 13.5 points. The Tigers needed some officiating miscues to win the game on a last second field goal 30-28.
Among the hits I took Ole Miss and the 23.5 points. Alabama only won by 15 (63-48) and gave up over 600 yards of total offense. Wow!
So five weeks into the season we sit at 15-15.
We have a shortened SEC schedule because two games (LSU at Florida, Vanderbilt at Missouri) were postponed due to concerns about the COVID-19 virus.
Here we go.
The game: Georgia (3-0) (plus 4.5) at Alabama (3-0), 8 p.m., CBS
The winner: Georgia.
The score: Georgia 24, Alabama 20
The skinny: The entire complexion of this game (and the line) changed on Wednesday when Nick Saban announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19. By NCAA rules, if not present, he will not be involved in the game beginning with 90 minutes before kickoff. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian will serve as head coach. Without a full house, Alabama doesn’t get its normal home field advantage. Georgia wins the game straight up. But here is a caveat: If Saban tests negative on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, he could be allowed to coach the team Saturday night.
The game: Auburn (2-1) at South Carolina (1-2) (plus 3.5), Noon, ESPN.
The winner: South Carolina.
The score: Auburn 27, South Carolina 24.
The skinny: There is just something very tempting about a home underdog.
There is also something tempting when one team has a quarterback who has struggled on road. Last season as a freshman, Auburn’s Bo Nix completed only 50 of 109 passes for 579 yards and four interceptions. This season he was overwhelmed in his first road against Georgia completing only 21 of 41 passes in a 27-6 loss.
Every game, especially the home games, is big for South Carolina Coach Will Muschamp. Gamecocks win straight up.
The game: Kentucky (1-2) (plus 6.5) at Tennessee (2-1), Noon, SEC Network.
The winner: Kentucky.
The score: Kentucky 24, Tennessee 23.
The skinny: This pick is based on two things.
Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano continues to have problems taking care of the football. He had three turnovers in last week’s 44-21 loss at Georgia.
Kentucky had six—that’s right six—interceptions last week in beating Mississippi State 24-2.
If Guarantano struggles early, it will be interesting to see if Tennessee makes a change at quarterback.
The game: Ole Miss (1-2) at Arkansas (1-2) (plus 1.5), 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
The winner: Ole Miss
The score: Ole Miss 45, Arkansas 42.
The skinny: Arkansas got their hearts ripped out last week at Auburn so it is tempting to pick the Hogs at home with a big chip on their shoulders. But after watching the Ole Miss offense for three weeks I can’t go against Lane Kiffin and his troops in this kind of game. The Rebels had more than 600 yards of total offense against what I thought was a pretty good Alabama defense. They are averaging 579 yards of offense in the first three games.
The game: Texas A&M (2-1) at Miss. State (1-2) (plus 5.5), 4 p.m., SEC Network
The winner: Texas A&M.
The score: Texas A&M 27, Miss. State 21.
The skinny: The Aggies have some momentum after beating Florida at home last Saturday. It was Jimbo Fisher’s first Top Five win as the Aggies head coach. It was also quarterback Kellen Mond’s best game in his time in College Station. Mississippi State’s offense has been a mess since beating LSU 44-34 on opening day. The Bulldogs did not score an offensive point last week in a 24-2 loss to Kentucky. Aggies win and cover the 5.5.
The game: Pittsburgh (3-2) (plus 13.5) at Miami (3-1), Noon, ACC Network
The winner: Pittsburgh.
The score: Miami 24, Pittsburgh 17.
The skinny: I could be wrong but Pittsburgh being a 13.5 dog, even on the road, just seems a bit rich.
Miami is coming off a significant beatdown by Clemson. Physically, those kinds of games linger for more than a week.
Pittsburgh’s two losses to N.C. State and Boston College have both come by one point. The Panthers have a solid quarterback in Kenny Pickett, who has competed 63 percent of his passes.
Because of the travel, I like Miami to win the game. But I just don’t see the ‘Canes covering 13.5