UCF Basketball Has a Good Shot to Reach the NCAA Tournament
UCF basketball has had a solid start to the 2021-22 campaign, as they are 8-2 including a win at Miami which could prove to be important for their tournament resume moving forward. They had chances to get two more big wins vs the Oklahoma Sooners at home and also a road game at the Auburn Tigers, but they could not get it done in either game. Their game vs Florida State, which was scheduled for December 18th, was also canceled, taking away another opportunity at a big win.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi actually has UCF currently projected to make the 68-team field as a 12 seed automatic qualifier in his bracket projection. Too much stock cannot be taken from this, though, as since he has them as an auto-qualifier, that just means he thinks UCF will win the end-of-season AAC Tournament, which is no guarantee. UCF has failed to do so even one time since joining the conference.
One of the main metrics used in the tournament selection process are “quadrant wins.” Every game a team plays is given a rating between Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 4, with Quadrant 1 being vs a very good team, and Quadrant 4 being a relatively weak team. The NET rankings determine the quadrant for every game. The location of the game is another factor in assigning a quadrant to a game. UCF is currently 0-1 vs Quadrant 1 teams, 1-1 vs Quadrant 2 teams, 2-0 vs Quadrant 3, and 4-0 vs Quadrant 4. Generally the selection committee looks at how many Quadrant 1 & 2 wins a team has to determine their strength of record.
Ahead on their schedule, UCF has an opportunity to nab up to four more Quadrant 1 wins (Houston 2x, at Wichita State, at Memphis), and up to five more Quadrant 2 wins (home vs Wichita State, home vs Cincinnati, at SMU, home vs Memphis, home vs Michigan). This is subject to change based on how those teams are ranked in the NET rankings at the end of the season.
The AAC looks slightly weaker than it was originally projected to be. Whether that is good or bad news is tough to say. There will be less marquee wins for UCF to add to their tournament resume than originally thought, however a weak AAC also means a better chance at winning the conference. There are really only three teams in the conference that look like they pose a major threat to the Knights, which are Memphis, Houston, and Cincinnati.
Memphis began the year ranked number 12 in the AP Rankings, but after recently rattling off 4 straight losses, they have dropped from the rankings altogether. They may have gathered their bearings though, as they just knocked off the 6th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide at home. They have a projected top five draft pick in freshman center Jalen Duren, who is a tough matchup for any team to have to deal with.
He is an unstoppable force in the paint that converts 67.2% of his field goals and blocks 2.8 shots per game, which ranks him 22nd in the country in that category. He also grabs 7.6 rebounds per game.
Memphis is also waiting for freshman Emoni Bates to come into his own. Coming out of high school he was rated as the number 3 recruit in the country, but has struggled somewhat to this point. With Memphis currently ranked at 54 in the NET rankings, a win vs the Tigers at home would give UCF a Quadrant 2 win, and if it manages to knock off Memphis on the road, it would count as a Quadrant 1 win.
Houston looks like the best team in the conference to date, and the toughest test for UCF. The Cougars have obliterated almost every team they have beaten this season, having the 5th best scoring margin in Division 1 at +22 points per game. They do have two losses, but those losses have come to respectable teams in Alabama and Wisconsin, and they lost those games by a combined three points.
Houston is led in large part by all-around playmaker Marcus Sasser, who has really come into his own this season, especially when it comes to shooting the ball. A high-volume three point shooter, Sasser ranks 8th in the country in 3-pointers made per game with 3.73 makes, and 42nd in the country in 3-point percentage at 43.6%.
UCF has excelled to this point in limiting three-point shooting, allowing just 26.1% on three point attempts on defense, so the Knights may be able to slow him down when these two teams meet. Both games vs Houston would be considered Quadrant 1 wins if UCF is able to beat them. The NET rankings have Houston as the 5th best team in the country.
Lastly, Cincinnati is always lurking in AAC contention. Even after a whole lot of turnover between last season and this season, Cincinnati is finding ways to win games. There is no one player who really stands out for the Bearcats, as they rely on working as a team rather than having one or two guys taking over games.
The Bearcats have always been stellar on the defensive end and this year is no exception. They only allow their opponents to shoot 36.5% from the floor, and hold their opponents to just under 60 points per game. UCF has historically struggled against elite defenses, so they will really have to lock in offensively to knock off Cincinnati.
The Knights have a lot of work to do if they want to receive an at-large bid into the tournament, but the opportunities are there for the taking. If UCF can secure a few Quadrant 1 and 2 wins, there may be an argument for them to be selected as an at-large. Otherwise, UCF will have to rely on winning the conference tournament.
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