ESPN analytics predict Utah vs. Wyoming Week 3 matchup

Advanced metrics heavily favor Utes heading into Week 3

Utah Utes wide receiver Smith Snowden (2) runs the ball after a catch against the Cal Poly Mustangs during the first quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

An old Mountain West Conference rivalry will be briefly rekindled on Saturday when Utah visits Wyoming, looking to sweep its nonconference schedule ahead of a rigorous Big 12 slate.

The 84th all-time matchup between the Utes and Cowboys will mark their first meeting on the gridiron in nearly 15 years, re-sparking a flame that's been out since Utah decided to move to the Pac-12.

The next installment of the Utah-Wyoming series will also feature two defensive units that have looked stout through the first few weeks of the season, as well as an electric dual-threat quarterback in Devon Dampier and one of the most productive receivers in the Mountain West thus far in Chris Durr.

Like the majority of sportsbooks, ESPN's advanced metrics and game-by-game forecasts give the advantage to Utah as it heads to Laramie, Wyoming, seeking a 3-0 start to the season before entertaining its first Big 12 opponent at home next week.

Here's a closer look at ESPN's predictions for Utah's road game at Wyoming.

ESPN Analytics heavily favors Utes

ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Utes a whopping 92.8% win probability heading into their Week 3 contest against the Cowboys; the most one-sided game left on Utah's schedule, based on ESPN's outlook.

Wyoming Cowboys quarterback Kaden Anderson (12) signals the snap during a game against Akron, Aug. 28, 2025, at InfoCision Stadium in Akron, Ohio. | Andrew Dolph / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN Analytics wasn't high on the Utes entering the season, though that narrative has started to shift since it falsely predicted the outcome of Utah's season opener against UCLA. The Utes, who were previously favored in just five of their 12 regular-season games entering the regular season, now hold the higher win probability rate over all their opponents except for their showdown at BYU on Oct. 18.

SP+ forecasts another big win for Utes

ESPN SP+, an advanced college football rating system developed by network analyst Bill Connelly, projects the Utes will take care of business on the road and move to 3-0 going into league play.

Connelly's formula has Utah beating Wyoming, 34-14. The Utes took down the Bruins and Mustangs by an average margin of 33.0 points.

In addition to calculating final scores for each matchup, ESPN SP+ ranks teams based on their assigned numeric rating, typically expressed as a margin of points per game against an average FBS opponent. In regard to Utah, it has the 14th-best SP+ rating in the country at 67.1.

That score takes into account the Utes' efficiency ratings on both sides of the ball through the first two weeks of the season; Utah checks in with the No. 38 offense and the No. 11 defense.