Pac-12 South Preview: Arizona Wildcats
As part of our Pac-12 South Preview, we will be examining each Pac-12 team. We will break down their schedule, their offense and defense and what should be considered a successful or failure of a season.
Up first is the Arizona Wildcats — Utah's first opponent of the season.
Nov 30, 2019; Tempe, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Kevin Sumlin against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Sun Devil Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Underlying Theme
When Arizona hired Kevin Sumlin from Texas A&M, a lot of Wildcats fans around the country were excited while others in the Pac-12 were maybe nervous about the big-time coach coming West.
But a lot of analysts questioned the hire. In fact, apart from one 11-win season in his first season with the Aggies, Sumlin was largely mediocre in the SEC. So when he arrived in Tucson in 2018 to take over a struggling Arizona squad, there were a lot of questions as to whether he was up for the job or not.
Now two years after his hire and entering his third season at the helm, there is definite reason to believe that the Sumlin-experience isn't working.
In two years, the Wildcats are 9-15 overall and 6-12 in the Pac-12, not to mention back-to-back losses to Pac-12 rival Arizona State. Last season looked hopeful, starting 4-1 overall and 2-0 in conference play, before losing seven straight to end the season and miss a bowl game in back-to-back seasons.
How this team moves forward knowing its coach is on the hot seat and a brutal three-game stretch to begin the season is anybody's guess. But if the Wildcats, who've also struggled recruiting under Sumlin, don't figure it out soon, it could be searching for their third head coach in four years.
Overview
2019 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-7 Pac-12
Started 4-1 (2-0 Pac-12) before losing seven straight to end the season and miss out on another bowl game
Schedule = Absolutely Brutal / SI Prediction in Bold
*Saturday, Nov. 7 — @ Utah (L)
*Saturday, Nov. 14 — vs. No. 21 USC (L)
*Saturday, Nov. 21 — @ Washington (L)
*Saturday, Nov. 28 — @ UCLA (L)
*Saturday, Dec. 5 — vs. Colorado (W)
*Friday, Dec. 11 — vs. Arizona State (L)
For a team looking to get off to a fast start with hopes of saving their head coach, this schedule couldn't be any worse. The Wildcats come out of the gates by facing the Pac-12 south division's top two teams, and then follow that up with a game in Seattle to face the Huskies.
The good news is that the schedule lightens significantly in the second half, with games at UCLA and hosting Colorado, two teams the Wildcats should have a chance against depending on their play.
Then it's wrapped up with a huge game against Arizona State for the Territorial Cup. Winning this game would go a long way into securing Sumlin's future employment in Tucson, albeit if he's still there at that point in the season.
Nov 16, 2019; Eugene, OR, USA; Arizona Wildcats quarterback Grant Gunnell (17) throws a pass during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Offense = Searching for Identity
There might be some room for optimism considering Arizona is returning its best pure passer in Grant Gunnell, who completed 65.2% (101-for-155) of his passes for 1,239 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception. But a lot of those stats came in mop up duty, particularly in blowout losses to USC and Oregon and against the conference's worst pass defenses in Oregon and UCLA.
The Wildcats lose top rusher J.J. Taylor, but senior Gary Brightwell is ready to step in and take over as the top running back. He finished last season with 66 carries for 390 yards and tied for a team-high with five touchdowns. Darius Smith also returns as the No. 2 option, but he's mostly seen as a threat out of the backfield.
Arizona's best offensive threat will come through the air as it returns three of its top four receivers; Jamarye Joiner, Brian Casteel and Tayvian Cunnigham. Joiner led the team with 552 receiving yards and five touchdowns, Casteel led the Wildcats with 45 catches while Cunningham owns the surest hands of the group.
Sep 14, 2019; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Jamarye Joiner (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the second half at Arizona Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
The best way for Arizona to find success is through the air and turn games into shootouts. The Wildcats have an accurate passer and some solid receivers, but there's still so much to be desired...
Defense = Inexperienced
It's not a good outlook on this side of the ball for the Wildcats, as Arizona lost four of its top five tacklers from last season. Only linebacker Anthony Pandy (66 tackles) returns.
Arizona does return top cornerback Lorenzo Burns, who led the team with seven passes defended and four interceptions last season. Other than that, the Wildcats secondary is young and unproven, and could really struggle against the some of the premier passing attacks it will face in USC and Arizona State.
Nov 23, 2019; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats cornerback Lorenzo Burns (2) intercepts a pass intended for Utah Utes wide receiver Demari Simpkins (3) during the second half at Arizona Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
The positive is that its top two pass rushers in Jalen Harris and JB Brown both return, who combined for 11.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks.
Season Outlook
If Arizona's season is to be a success, going 2-4 or 3-3 might be enough to save Sumlin's job. Winning against Colorado and UCLA are must happens, and then picking off either Arizona State (which would mean more) or Washington (more impressive on the road) would probably be enough to give him one more year.
A failure would be going 0-6, which is a game worse than what I predict the Wildcats will do. There's way to many undetermined factors for this team, and with Sumlin's hot seat hanging over their heads, it's hard to imagine the Wildcats showing much fight.
Final Prediction
Record: 1-5
*Arizona's struggles continue as lack of explosive players on offense and a leaky defense ultimately lead to Sumlin's firing and the Wildcats completely hitting the reboot button.
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