Vanderbilt Commodores

Did Vanderbilt’s Win Make it a Lock for the NCAA Tournament?

With Selection Sunday two weeks away, Vanderbilt's three-game win streak against ranked opponents has come at a near-perfect time. But the season isn't over yet.
Taylor Hodges|
Vanderbilt guard Tyler Nickel (5) celebrates after defeating Missouri 97-93 in overtime at Memorial Gym in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, March 1, 2025.
Vanderbilt guard Tyler Nickel (5) celebrates after defeating Missouri 97-93 in overtime at Memorial Gym in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, March 1, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Vanderbilt Commodores

Don’t look now, but Vanderbilt is currently on a three-game win streak with two winnable games left on the schedule in Arkansas and Georgia.

The Commodores (20-9, 8-8 SEC) picked up its latest win in an exciting overtime win against No. 14 Missouri, 97-93. The Commodores had been considered a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament but after three wins against ranked opponents their status is a lot more secure.

Vanderbilt, though, isn’t considered a lock. According to ESPN’s predictive forecast model, Vanderbilt now has an 89 percent chance of making the tournament. The Commodores currently rank 37th in NET Rankings with five Quad 1 wins, four Quad 2 wins and no losses in Quad 3 or Quad 4 games. According to the 2025 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings on kenpom.com, Vanderbilt’s +17.77 Net Rating is 39th (for comparison, No. 1 Auburn has a +38.97 rating).

So, what exactly does all of that mean? Basically, it means Vanderbilt is very likely to end its NCAA Tournament drought as an 8-, 9- or 10-seed.

However, there is a reason the Commodores haven’t reached official “lock” status. They survived the six-game gauntlet of ranked teams, but now have to face two teams fighting to get on the right side of the tournament’s bubble.

SI.com’s Kevin Sweeney had both Arkansas and Georgia in his most recent bracket watch column, but that was before the Razorbacks lost 72-53 to South Carolina (one of two SEC teams that won’t be making the NCAA Tournament).

Arkansas needs to get wins against high quality opponents if it wants to earn an invitation to the tournament. A win against Vanderbilt would be very helpful in doing just that.

The Commodores can’t take things easy during the final week or get caught looking ahead to the SEC Tournament next week. Because losses to Arkansas and Georgia and a one-and-done appearance at the conference tournament, will make for interesting decision for the NCAA selection committee.

Arkansas and Vanderbilt will play Wednesday night at Memorial Gymnasium. Tipoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. on SEC Network.

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas, but he was taken to Razorback pep rallies at Billy Bob's Texas in Fort Worth before he could walk. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

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