Inside The Decision That Looms Ahead Of Vanderbilt Basketball Star Tyler Tanner

The shot is of great enough magnitude for Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner to have known immediately that it was going to haunt him forever. For a second all he could do was lay on the ground and think about all that could’ve been and all that was.

Tanner’s halfcourt heave was right on line and hit the glass like he intended. In another universe, it’s a contender for the greatest shot in Vanderbilt basketball history. Instead, though, it’s an example of cruelty that prompted Tanner’s emotion as he was propped up by Vanderbilt freshman guard Jaylon Dean-Vines and walked off the floor with his jersey pulled over his face.

It’s cruel, and it could get crueler.

That could’ve been the last time that Tanner ever stepped on a college basketball court in a Vanderbilt uniform. At the very least, he’s not guaranteeing that it’s not.

“I'm focused on right now, which is the truth,” Tanner told Vandy on SI the day before Vanderbilt’s matchup with Nebraska. “All that, I'll figure out once this is over this year.”

Mar 21, 2026; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) dunks during the first half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Tanner rebuffed that point at his locker after Vanderbilt’s loss to Nebraska and he appears to be genuine in his lack of his definitive decision at this point. The Vanderbilt guard making any sort of decision at this stage would be naive, unless he’s had his heart set on it the whole way. This appears to be a true 50/50 proposition and Tanner isn't discounting it from being such.

The NBA will have to be a thought for the Vanderbilt point guard at this stage, regardless of how much he’d like to return to Vanderbilt for year three and raise the profile of his star within this program. Tanner is likely to put his name in the NBA Draft and go through the process before he makes any sort of move one way or another. He can always withdraw it, but Tanner not going through that process would be doing himself a disservice at this point. Another disservice would include Tanner’s reps at CAA Sports not doing everything they can to make him the highest paid player in the country if he returns to Vanderbilt–which appears to be a semi-realistic goal at this stage.

The consensus indicates that Tanner is regarded as a fringe first round pick in the draft at this point, although he’s become a polarizing prospect despite his non-polarizing nature. Tanner is an off-the-bounce scorer and floor general that has forced a number of evaluators to fall in love. His production and age supports the case that he should be a first round pick.

Tanner’s 6-foot, 173 pound frame–which some evaluators have questioned–will naturally limit his draft ceiling, though. It only takes one team to fall in love, but if Tanner isn’t selected in the top 25–or at least the first round–of the draft he could have some regrets about not returning to school.

The Vanderbilt guard could also improve his floater game, 3-point efficiency and overall strength if he returns. The possibility of a huge statistical surge may not be there like some would assume it to be because of the way Vanderbilt’s roster will be constructed, though. Tanner’s counting numbers benefitted from Vanderbilt being without Duke Miles for extended periods of time and Frankie Collins missing the second half of the season. The Vanderbilt guard is averaging 19.3 points, 5.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game while shooting it 48.8% from the floor and 37.3% from 3-point range. Perhaps Tanner’s efficiency numbers could improve if he returns.

That’s not what matters for Tanner if he returns as much as his general film improving, though.

If Tanner does return, he’d get himself out of the best draft class–which is heavily centered on guardplay–in over a decade and would put himself in a more favorable position to reach the lottery. He’d also be able to play one more season in his hometown–which deserves more than one sentence of mention considering Tanner’s relationships in the area–and would make himself a rich man by doing so. Tanner has also dreamed of playing in the NBA, though.

“When you step back and look at it, it's like ‘wow, like, I get to decide on an agency and I get to think about the future a little bit,’” Tanner said. “But like I said, it's just a huge blessing. I'm really not focused on it at all right now, honestly. But, I'm very thankful that I can make those decisions.”

The precedent for current college players coming back when they could’ve been drafted is embodied by two SEC guards who made that choice this season. Alabama guard Labaron Philon has clearly been too good to play in college all season and will have a jump in his NBA stock as a result. Auburn guard Tahaad Pettiford envisioned something similar, yet he’s seen his stock plummet as a result of a brutal season.

Tanner does appear to be closer to Philon in terms of his skillset and would likely have a higher degree of impact than Pettiford if he were to return, but he would open himself up to a multitude of factors that could derail him. The more likely outcome, though, would be that Tanner would cement himself as an all-time great Vanderbilt basketball player.

The legacy piece of all this appears to matter to Tanner, which makes it likely that his only two realistic choices are a return to Vanderbilt and a departure to the NBA Draft. Industry smoke has surrounded the idea that a rival SEC program has been pushing for Tanner behind the scenes, but the indication is that he’s made it clear that he’s not all that interested in anything that they have to offer.

Tanner, though, is interested in what the NBA can do for him. He’s been open about the idea that he’s not shutting it down. He won’t for at least a few more months, if he does at all.