Three Keys and A Prediction: Vanderbilt Basketball vs. Memphis
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NASHVILLE---Vanderbilt basketball's biggest test yet is here.
Memphis enters Memorial Gymnasium in the fallout of a 2-0 start in which it knocked off VCU and Iowa State as underdogs. Now, it looks to pull another upset while Vanderbilt looks to assert its dominance as a result of its new-look roster in year three of the Mark Byington era.
Vanderbilt is bigger and more physical than it's been, but it still isn't a finished product. Can it get by Memphis while still developing an identity?
Here's three keys and a prediction in regard to whether it will do so.
Don’t let Memphis do what Memphis does
Penny Hardaway hired a general manager this offseason and has a roster that fits significantly better than a number of his previous ones. Memphis finally has a roster that’s greater than the sum of its parts, and it also appears to have the same blue-collar mentality that’s made it dangerous under Hardaway.
Memphis will be more crisp offensively than it’s been the last few times Vanderbilt has seen it, but it doesn’t have the same disruptive power that it’s had previously. Memphis is No. 227 in opponent effective field goal percentage, No. 219 in opponent turnover percentage, No. 296 in opponent 3-point percentage, No. 156 in block rate and No. 153 in the country in steal percentage. On paper, this is the near antithesis of what Memphis has proven to be in recent memory.
But, with Hardaway there’s always the threat of Memphis mucking the game up and getting Vanderbilt out of character enough for it to stick around as heavy underdogs.
Demonstrate that this roster building strategy has paid off
Byington and company knew they’d be sacrificing some perimeter skill as a result of their heavy allocation of resources to the frontcourt, but they appear to like the early returns on their strategy.
Vanderbilt is shooting 37.0% from 3-point range through two games and has entirely outclassed its first two opponents in terms of forcing turnovers, forcing long twos and preventing offensive rebounds. As a result, it’s given itself significantly more bites at the apple than Wake Forest and Bellarmine. Memphis will provide more of a test than either of those teams in that regard as a result of its No. 77 offensive turnover rate and pedestrian offensive rebounding numbers, but Vanderbilt built its roster to overpower and has the opportunity to in a game like this.
Time for Byington and company to get some proof of concept here.
Figure out some of the structural offensive stuff
The result was fine by Byington on Thursday, but the way Vanderbilt operated offensively against Wake Forest was unsatisfactory to him. He’s spent the last few days trying to fix that. Time to see if he’s gotten through to his team yet.
Wake Forest took Vanderbilt out of rhythm by icing ballscreens that Tyler Tanner was the handler on and Vanderbilt never really got into a flow–even when it was scoring it in bunches down the stretch.
There’s still far too much one-on-one going on offensively for this group and there’s a number of guys here that don’t appear to have any comfortability in their roles or the flow of the offense. That’s not all that unexpected, but it appears to be high on Vanderbilt’s list of things to fix. Memphis will likely try similar things to throw Vanderbilt out of rhythm. Time to see if it’s successful.
Prediction: Vanderbilt: 87, Memphis: 82
Vanderbilt should win Tuesday because of the talent advantage and what could be a significant difference in volume of field goal attempts, but Memphis has outperformed the metrics in its first two games and did last year in its narrow loss to Vanderbilt in FedEx Forum.
Picking Vanderbilt here is a bet on its talent and the idea that it knows how to win when things get hairy late. The score prediction is a vote of confidence in Memphis and a hesitancy to say that Vanderbilt has it all figured out at this point.
But, Vanderbilt has the pieces and the profile to win this thing and move to 3-0.
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Joey Dwyer is the lead writer on Vanderbilt Commodores On SI. He found his first love in college sports at nearby Lipscomb University and decided to make a career of telling its best stories. He got his start doing a Notre Dame basketball podcast from his basement as a 14-year-old during COVID and has since aimed to make that 14-year-old proud. Dwyer has covered Vanderbilt sports for three years and previously worked for 247 Sports and Rivals. He contributes to Seth Davis' Hoops HQ, Basket Under Review and Mainstreet Nashville.
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