Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt Basketball Vs. Missouri

NASHVILLE---It was heartbreak for Vanderbilt a year ago as it left Missouri in the fallout of a game that it could've had, but lost due to a few late defensive breakdowns. Perhaps this time can be different, though.

Vanderbilt heads to Columbia for a Wednesday-night showdown with Dennis Gates' Tigers team with a better chance to find a way to win than it had a season ago. Can it demonstrate its maturation of a program on Wednesday?

Here's three keys to it making that happen and a prediction.

Keep Mizzou off the offensive glass early

Vanderbilt has seen most of the best offensive rebounding teams in the SEC, but this type of key still shows up often for it because it still hasn’t proven that it’s entirely capable of shutting down teams in the league on the offensive glass.

Mark Byington’s team is No. 10 in the SEC in defensive rebounding as well as No. 120 in the country in defensive rebounding. It has a few capable rebounders, but it’s often gotten blitzed on the glass early in games and has had to fight late because of foul trouble.

Missouri won’t offer much reprieve.

The Tigers are No. 26 in the country on the offensive glass and are No. 5 in the league in offensive rebounds. They aren’t exceptional, but they’re really good and can change the game because of the glass.

Oddly enough, Missouri center Shawn Phillips is the only Tiger that is ranked in the top 300 in offensive rebounding percentage. Vanderbilt will have to have a body on him constantly.

Can Vanderbilt make Missouri play on the perimeter more than inside out? Can it adjust if not?

Missouri is just No. 241 in the country in the percentage of field goals it attempts that are 3-point attempts. It is No. 237 in the country in the amount of its point distribution that comes from beyond the arc. Jacob Crews is an excellent shooter–and is top 20 in the country–but he’s just one of two Missouri players that have nationally-ranked 3-point percentages.

How is Missouri still in the NCAA Tournament conversation with those metrics–which don’t often translate in this era of college basketball? Well, it’s No. 34 in the country in 2-point percentage and No. 38 in the country in average 2-point distance.

Vanderbilt is likely okay trading a few 2s for 3s, but it’s more okay with making Mizzou shoot it consistently from beyond the arc. Vanderbilt’s guards are better than Missouri, which could be the deciding factor on Wednesday night.

Can AK Okereke do it again?

Okereke really hasn’t gotten enough credit for how much of a saving grace he’s been for this Vanderbilt team–particularly while it’s been without Duke Miles and Frankie Collins. Time to acknowledge him and how important he is to the success of this thing.

The Cornell transfer will likely guard Mark Mitchell on Wednesday and–if Vanderbilt doesn’t have Miles and Collins–will have to take on a role as a secondary ballhandler again. It didn’t initially appear as if Vanderbilt knew exactly what to do with Okereke, but he’s found his place as a swingman and has translated that role into big outings against Auburn, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

Okereke isn’t just a great story and someone who’s stepped up for Vanderbilt. He’s among its most important players these days. Tyler Tanner is still its most important player–and needs to get right on Wednesday–but Okereke may be No. 2 because of his versatility.

Prediction: Vanderbilt: 77, Missouri: 73

Vanderbilt is shorthanded, but it appears to have enough depth and offensive firepower to avenge the heartbreaking loss it suffered in Columbia a year ago. Betting against Tanner to have a bad outing again appears to be unwise, and so does betting on Vanderbilt losing.