Diego Pavia's Heisman Case is Clear, But It May Not Be Enough; Column
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NASHVILLE—The idea that Diego Pavia could sit at UFC323 and fully focus on the competition playing out in front of him and his offensive linemen appears to have some naivety mixed into it. Pavia likely did his best to put football aside for the night, but gave in to the temptation to give Vanderbilt’s College Football Playoff case one more pitch to the national audience as he walked into the event with a thick silver chain draped around his neck.
Pavia likely encountered a similar temptation throughout the evening each time his phone lit up. If the Vanderbilt quarterback were to open any scorekeeping app, he’d see the numbers Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin were compiling in the BIG 10 Championship Game. If he were to open social media, he’d be forced to ride the rollercoaster that was his Heisman Trophy odds. At halftime of Saturday’s game, the odds appeared to be in Pavia’s favor. By the end, Mendoza was the favorite by far with -2500 odds.
As Pavia went home from the event and Mendoza addressed the cameras with his unique level of polish and enthusiasm, the bodies of work were nearly entirely complete. It appears as if Sayin’s loss and non-stellar numbers are the final straw in regard to his case and that Pavia’s body of work surpasses Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love’s, that leaves the Vanderbilt quarterback and the Indiana quarterback–who won the BIG 10 title on Saturday–as the two most likely to come back from New York with the trophy in their hands.
The argument for Pavia appears to be noteworthy at this point. He’s got the most figurative wins above replacement among the candidates for the award. His regular season passing and rushing yardage as well as his rushing touchdowns eclipsed Mendoza’s.
“I just hope everyone looks at the stats,” Pavia said of his Heisman Trophy case after Vanderbilt’s win over Tennessee. “I think the numbers speak for themselves and obviously the best player in the country goes off the numbers and tape. If you go look at that I feel the same way. That’s not me being cocky or arrogant, that’s just point blank.”
Pavia’s Heisman campaign has included a merch line that has resulted in the #2Turnt saying being plastered all over Nashville, a Heisman moment of sorts after a touchdown run against Tennessee and a strong push from Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea. It may not be enough when the Heisman winner is announced on Dec. 13, though.
The harsh truth these days is that Mendoza’s meek performance on Saturday–in which he threw for just 222 yards, one touchdown and an interception–may have been good enough to put him over the edge for college football’s most prestigious individual award. If the Vegas odds–which have Pavia at +1400–indicate anything, Mendoza will be the winner of the award when it’s all said and done.
Indiana’s star quarterback has something that the Vanderbilt star doesn’t at this stage of the race. His team is 13-0, won its conference and will find itself in the College Football Playoff field on Sunday afternoon. He’s also not a sixth-year player–which some voters could look to stay away from–like Pavia is. Pavia has won, but he’s lost enough to give the voters a reason not to select him. He’ll likely be part of the small group that goes to New York, but his camp will have plenty of perception to alter prior to their trip up north. It’s not impossible at this stage, but it appears as if it’s more improbable than the Saturday-night spike in Pavia’s odds would indicate.
The lack of the award to back up Pavia’s stellar final season wouldn’t quite be a miscarriage of justice, but it would be a shame for college football’s best story and biggest enigma to end his career just short of the sport’s best individual award. There’s still time for Vanderbilt to spin this narrative in Pavia’s favor, though. There’s still time for the best player in program history to win with his back against the wall one more time. Vanderbilt will certainly keep fighting for it.
“I don’t know what else to say,” Lea said. “It is my belief that he is the best football player in the country.”
_(1)-b3e453dfe426b2dd4b83a12540ebdb37.jpeg "Joey Dwyer")
Joey Dwyer is the lead writer on Vanderbilt Commodores On SI. He found his first love in college sports at nearby Lipscomb University and decided to make a career of telling its best stories. He got his start doing a Notre Dame basketball podcast from his basement as a 14-year-old during COVID and has since aimed to make that 14-year-old proud. Dwyer has covered Vanderbilt sports for three years and previously worked for 247 Sports and Rivals. He contributes to Seth Davis' Hoops HQ, Southeastern 16 and Mainstreet Nashville.
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