What The Odds, Other Awards Indicate About Diego Pavia's Heisman Trophy Standing

A day from now Diego Pavia will know if everything he’s worked for, the marketing campaign Vanderbilt has conducted with the help of celebrities and his pitch in the media had an impact.

Pavia is among the four finalists to win the Heisman Trophy alongside Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. Mendoza is the heavy favorite with -1800 odds while Pavia’s sit at +900, Love’s sit at +25,000 and Sayin’s sit at +50,000. It appears to be a two-horse race between Mendoza and Pavia at this point in FanDuel’s odds are indicative of anything with Mendoza having a significant lead on Pavia.

A comparable award, the AP Player of the Year, indicates that the results aren’t much of a fluke.

Mendoza won the award this week and received 32 of the 51 first-place votes while Pavia was second while receiving just nine votes to win the award. Logic indicates at this stage that Pavia will be the Heisman runner up rather than the actual winner of the award.

Pavia did win the SEC Offensive Player of the Year as well as the Unitas Award, which is “presented annually to the nation’s top upper-class collegiate quarterback who excels on the field, in the classroom, and in the community.”

The Vanderbilt quarterback–who has secured his title as the best player in program history– believes that the Heisman Trophy award should end up in his hands, as well.

Final regular season season stats for the three Heisman contenders:

Pavia: 3,192 pass yds, 27 TD, 8 INT, 71.2% + 826 rush yds, 9 TD

Mendoza: 2,758 pass yds, 32 TD, 5 INT, 72.0% + 243 rush yds, 6 TD

Sayin: 3,065 pass yds, 30 TD, 5 INT, 78.9% + 27 rush yds, 0 TD

The passing…
— Dylan Tovitz (@dtovitz) December 1, 2025

“I just hope everyone looks at the stats,” Pavia said of his Heisman Trophy case after Vanderbilt’s win over Tennessee. “I think the numbers speak for themselves and obviously the best player in the country goes off the numbers and tape. If you go look at that I feel the same way. That’s not me being cocky or arrogant, that’s just point blank.”

Pavia isn’t entirely out of the race at this stage, but Mendoza’s resume–which also includes the Walter Camp Player of the Year award and BIG 10 Offensive Player of the Year award–indicates that he may have the edge on Pavia in regard to the sport’s biggest individual award.

Votes were due for the Heisman on Monday Dec. 8. Each Heisman finalist will meet the media in New York on Friday ahead of the award’s presentation on Saturday night. Pavia’s availability won’t give him an opportunity to sway voters, but–if his previous appearances addressing the media are any indication–it’s likely to include one final push for the award.

“I don’t know what else to say,” Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea said after Vanderbilt’s win against Tennessee. “It is my belief that he is the best football player in the country.”