Predicting Virginia Women's Basketball's NCAA Tournament Path

The Virginia Cavaliers women's basketball program claims an overall record of 19-11 and 11-7 in conference play this season. For the first time since 2018, the Hoos will be back in the NCAA Tournament, with plans to compete in the First Four, facing the Arizona Sun Devils

“I’m just excited for the experience for this team," head coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton stated, per Virginia Sports. "I just think we have a lot of players on our team that this will be the first time that they’ve been to the NCAA Tournament and we have players that have been to the NCAA Tournament that will get a chance to play significant minutes. I just want them to seize the day, stay present and compete.”

This will mark UVA's 26th appearance in the NCAA Tournament, and needless to say, the Cavaliers are looking to make a deep run. But this hasn't been a seamless campaign for Virginia. With that in mind, we've made a realistic prediction to reflect just how far we expect Virginia to go in the Tournament this year.

First Four: vs. Arizona State (March 19 at 9 p.m. ET)

Virginia Cavaliers Paris Clark dribbling a basketball during a game. — Virginia Cavaliers guard Paris Clark | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Virginia and Arizona State are both ranked toward the middle of their respective conference standings. The Sun Devils are 24-10 overall and 9-9 in conference play, and this will be their first time since 2019 in which they wil be back in the NCAA Tournament.

I'd expect the Cavaliers to come out on top in this matchup, but many of their games have resulted in tight scores—this isn't likely to change. If the Hoos win, they would move on to the Round of 64, claiming the No. 10 seed, and will face No. 7 Georgia in the Sacramento 4 Region.

First Round: vs. Georgia (March 21 at 1:30 p.m. ET)

The Lady Bulldogs are no strangers to playing against competitive programs, particularly this year. The SEC has been dominated by Dawn Staley's South Carolina program (31-3, 15-1 SEC) and the Texas Longhorns (31-3, 13-3 SEC), but the Vanderbilt Commodores (27-4, 13-3 SEC), led by head coach Shea Ralph, have also been on the rise. With this trio up top, Georgia has been tested immensely this year.

Taking this into account, this would likely be another close game for both programs. However, I wouldn't bank on the Hoos coming out on top. I think the First Round will be their last stop in the Tournament, at least for this year.