March Madness: Four Teams With the Clearest Path to the Men’s Final Four

As soon as the men’s field is unveiled on Selection Sunday, the complaints begin by coaches over the work the selection committee did in putting together the bracket.

This team got underseeded while that team got overseeded. Why is one team getting shipped across the country while this one plays down the street? How come the committee always likes making Duke the No. 1 seed?

While such questions are a constant this time of year, there’s little doubt some teams have better paths to the national championship than others. That’s especially true this season, where the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 all sent an oversized amount of teams to the Big Dance that forced some interesting decisions impacting the sub-regional matchups all the way through to potential Final Four combinations.

With that in mind, which men’s basketball team has the clearest path to cutting down the nets? After examining the bracket, these top seeds are a tad better off in what lies ahead as they chase the national title all the way to Indianapolis.

No. 2 Iowa State, Midwest Region

The Cyclones limped into Kansas City with a few issues in road games at the end of conference play, but flipped a switch when they got there and seemed prime to take advantage of this path through Chicago. Either Kentucky or Santa Clara is a very beatable opponent in the second round. They just might be one of the few programs who wouldn’t mind breaking Virginia’s press or dealing with Tennessee’s length if they reach the Sweet 16 against either. Mostly though, this is a nod to how shaky No. 1 Michigan has looked the past few weeks and how primed for the taking the Midwest is as a result.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 3 Virginia

Ryan Odom knows how to author a March Madness moment or two, so he’ll have the Cavaliers primed to go on a run after nearly winning the ACC tournament over top overall seed Duke on Saturday. They have an incredible shot blocker in Ugonna Onyenso, their rotation is deep and their style can be difficult to pick up in the short prep time the NCAA tournament offers up. Should they wind up getting past Iowa State, things look pretty favorable out of the bottom half of the Midwest.

No. 1 Arizona, West Region

The Wildcats have had a fairly tortuous history as of late with March Madness, having not made it past the Sweet 16 in over a decade to go along with a first-round upset to Princeton three years ago. This could be the year to change that, however, both the result of a team that has swept the Big 12 regular-season plus tournament titles and because of an excellent draw out in their part of the country. They’ll make the short hop to San Diego to play Long Island in the opening round and have the kind of rotation that can make life difficult for either Villanova or Utah State. Arkansas or Wisconsin potentially awaits after that, but both will be at a tough travel disadvantage and could be in trouble if their shot isn’t falling. It’s really the bottom half of the bracket that should excite Tommy Lloyd, however, as Arizona draws Purdue as its No. 2 seed and matches up well against pretty much everyone else.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 5 Wisconsin

As mentioned above, the Badgers must deal with both a big travel flaw (potentially two West Coast trips back to back) and would have to play Arizona to start the second weekend. If they can get past the Wildcats then they have the guards and three-point shooting that could carry them past anybody else left in the region.

No. 3 Illinois, South Region

A lot has been made about Houston playing essentially at home in the South and that’s no doubt a factor in the Cougars’ ability to make it to another Final Four, but don’t sleep on the Illini. They get a fun first-round matchup between two old coaching buddies in Fran McCaffery’s Penn team taking on Brad Underwood’s group and will get either the last automatic qualifier into the bracket (VCU) or a banged-up North Carolina team without Caleb Wilson. It won’t be easy battling the Cougars in a de facto home game, but Kelvin Sampson’s team is offensively challenged enough that Illinois could get past it and have one of the few frontcourts that can go toe-to-toe with reigning champion Florida or anyone who comes out of the top half in the Elite Eight. This team hasn’t always played to their talent level but, if they do, the path is there for a very extended run.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 10 Texas A&M

Buckyball is back in the tourney and it sure poses some matchup problems if you’re not ready for it. Saint Mary’s is a veteran team but will be at a big crowd advantage with the Aggies in Oklahoma City. They’ll be upset minded if old SWC rival Houston is there in the second round. That would turn their regional into a home game some 90 minutes from campus. Their press-happy style is one of the few that could negate some of the longer and stronger teams they’ll meet on the way in the second weekend.

No. 3 Michigan State, East Region

What’s the old joke? January, February, Izzo and April? Tom Izzo is never a happy camper, but he might let out a sly smile upon seeing the potential to go on a run with this draw. Yes, No. 1 overall seed Duke is looming large, but that’s not a team to worry about until the regional final. He’ll have the opportunity to reach Washington, D.C., by beating either a flawed (and banged-up) Louisville or a South Florida team that is a great story but also hasn’t been tested much coming out of the American. Either a UCLA revenge game or UConn limping into the Big Dance offer up a winnable game. This group of Spartans just might have the right mix in the rotation to match up well with the Blue Devils. Izzo has pushed this group right to its max during the regular season, but the tournament is a different beast. They might be one of the few who would relish playing all these bluebloods along the way to Indianapolis—where they last won the national title.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 7 UCLA

Mick Cronin said Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent will be good to go this week for the tourney and if so, don’t rule out a deep run for the Bruins. Those guards helped fuel an unexpected run in the Big Ten tournament and if they’re actually healthy, could be key to overperforming in the East. To start with, UCF may be a bit overseeded at No. 10 and is a good mix of a winnable but tough test in the first round. Then there’s UConn, which the Bruins would be getting at the right time given their struggles while avoiding Kansas, St. John’s, Michigan State and Duke until later.

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