Closing Odds: Louisville Remains a Favorite in Week Six Matchup vs Virginia

Louisville is still favored to win their week six matchup against Louisville, but could UVA secure another upset victory?

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) passes the ball against the Florida State Seminoles at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

As of Saturday, the odds regarding Virginia's week six matchup against Louisville have seen minimal movement. Despite UVA landing spot No. 24 on the AP Top 25 Poll after their monumental victory over Florida State last Friday, the Cardinals remain a favorite in this week's odds.

Louisville is running undefeated and has picked up wins over Eastern Kentucky (51-17), James Madison (28-14), Bowling Green (40-17) and Pittsburgh (34-27). The Cavaliers are 4-1 overall and 2-0 in conference play, which serves as a major boost to Tony Elliott's credentials with UVA.

Heading into the Saturday afternoon matchup, Louisville remains a 6.5-point favorite in the game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 60.5. However, after watching Virginia beat all odds last week, it's hard to imagine that they won't be able to surge ahead once again.

Can UVA Upset Louisville?

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) passes the ball as Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Darrell Jackson Jr. (6) chases in the first overtime period at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

We've seen Virginia's ability to pull off massive victories in the past, so what's stopping them from doing so again? The Cavaliers are equipped with an explosive offense and a defensive unit that is continuing to develop and implement effective strategies into their play. However, the same can be said about Louisville's program. Between their star players, including Miller Moss, Chris Bell, Clev Lubin, and TJ Quinn, and their tendency to make massive late-game comebacks, Virginia is going to be in for a tough competition.

During Elliott's latest press conference, he stated:

"... They're undefeated. They came from behind. They were down 17 points on the road. So they got a lot of belief as well. They're a confident bunch defensively. They got a really good rotation on their D-line, which allows them to stay fresh. Linebackers are very athletic. They run well on the back end. They're very well-coached and coordinated, and I don't see them out of position much. It's a really good football team that is also two years removed from being in the ACC championship, right? So there's guys on that team that have been there, that have done that. And they're playing at home, and they got a ranked team coming in. They feel like they should be ranked. So, I mean, there are a lot of things that are going to make this a challenging opportunity for us, but our guys will be ready."

Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, some of their key players are still sidelined due to injury, namely starting center Brady Wilson and running back Noah Vaughn. Elliott will need to fill in the gaps as he has done in prior games, but another matchup without the duo is certainly not ideal.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. EST, and both programs are expected to hit the ground running. But as seen in the past, this could be another game in which Louisville has a slow start. UVA must be prepared to have an explosive second half of the matchup.

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