FPI odds move towards the Hoos after a major ACC win over Florida State

Can the Cavaliers ride the momentum to a spot amongst the top of the ACC this season?

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) scores a touchdown s Florida State Seminoles defensive back Ja'Bril Rawls (11) defends during the second quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia is having one of the hottest starts in college football this season. A massive upset against Florida State, plus a No. 24 ranking in the AP Poll has the program trending in an extremely positive direction. Now, the odds against a majority of their opponents further down the schedule are looking similar or moving in the right direction.

Game 6 vs Louisville- FPI gives Louisville a 56% chance to win this game (57% last week)

Sep 27, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Isaac Brown (1) runs the ball against Pittsburgh Panthers defensive back Rashad Battle (15) during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The odds are basically the same as last week, according to FPI. SP+ also has Louisville in this game but at a far higher percentage of certainty (72%). Both UVA and Louisville had great performances this past week. Louisville is coming off an energizing come back win at Acrisure Stadium against Pitt. Quarterback Miller Moss led the offense back in the second half to secure the clutch road conference win.

Game 7 vs Washington State- FPI gives Virginia a 95% chance to win this game (96% last week)

Sep 20, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; Washington State Cougars defensive end Isaac Terrell (88) lines up for a play against the Washington Huskies in the second half of Apple Cup at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

Once again, the odds are nearly identical. I think the small move in Wazoo's direction comes from their convincing win over a pretty bad Colorado State team this past week. Washington State had not looked tremendous up until that point, getting ran out of the stadium on the road against North Texas and Washington at home.

Game 8 vs North Carolina- FPI gives Virginia an 83% chance to win this game (80% last week)

Sep 20, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Demon June (35) is tackled by UCF Knights linebacker Lewis Carter (20) during the second half at the Bounce House Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Virginia's win in the ACC definitely helps move the needle for UVA. The quarterback matchup in this one is by far in the Hoo's favor as UNC quarterback Gio Lopez looks unsteady playing this level of competition. Backup Max Johnson has looked good in relief but the Tar Heels continue with Lopez. Virginia's defense will probably be licking their chops if Lopez is still in the starting lineup.

Game 9 vs California- FPI gives Cal a 67% chance to win this game (67% last week)

Sep 27, 2025; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; California Golden Bears linebacker Luke Ferrelli (41) intercepts the ball in the final seconds of the second half against the Boston College Eagles at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Now, odds that are actually identical. Both of these programs look to be in a good but slightly different positions. Virginia is led by an experienced fifth year senior quarterback in Chandler Morris. Most of their offense is either juniors, seniors, or grad transfers. On the other hand, Cal has a true freshman quarterback running the show, leading them to 4-1 start to their season. Bruins quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is one of the best true freshman in the country, tossing eight touchdowns. He does make some mistakes as such a young signal caller does so he still has room to learn but he is extremely talented.

Game 10 vs Wake Forest- FPI gives Virginia a 90% chance to win this game (90% last week)

Sep 27, 2025; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Robby Ashford (2) throws the ball during the fourth quarter against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Yellow Jackets won 30-29. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Another set of identical odds. Wake Forest still looks like they will sit at the middle to the bottom of the ACC standings this season. An extremely tight loss to No. 16 Georgia Tech last week had to take some wind out of their sails. The loss showed they had grit but now they fall to 0-2 in the ACC early in the season.

Game 11 vs Duke- FPI gives Duke a 51% chance to win this game (61% for Virginia last week)

Sep 27, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) tries to break a tackle by Syracuse Orange defensive lineman Nathan Nyandoro (30) in the fourth quarter at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Duke's odds improve as they manhandle a Syracuse team that just took down Clemson. Syracuse is now without starting quarterback Steve Angeli but Duke also dismantled their defense, putting up 38 points. Duke quarterback Darian Mensah tossed two touchdowns to wide receiver Nate Sheppard while completing 79% of his passes.

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech- FPI gives Virginia a 78% chance to win this game (80% last week)

Sep 27, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) attempts to throw the ball during the first half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

The only reason these odds moved are because Virginia Tech's surprising win over a team UVA has already lost to: North Carolina State. VT's offense put together a competent showing as running back Terion Stewart popped off for 174 yards on over 11 yards per carry. The Hokies' defense also limited Louisville to under 60 rushing yards in the upset win on the road, also holding running back Hollywood Smothers scoreless for just the second time this season.