SP+ Give Louisville a Healthy Chance to Take Down No. 24 Virginia

Virginia's major win against Florida State is not enough to sway experts on their Week Six road matchup

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) celebrates after the Cavaliers' win against against the Florida State Seminoles in two overtimes at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Even after one of the biggest wins in program history and being ranked for the first time since 2019, UVA is still an underdog. According to the SP+ , Virginia is projected to lose to Louisville on the road by nine points, 34-25. SP+ also gives Louisville an almost three-quarters chance (72%) to come out of the Week Six matchup with a win.

This comes as the spread provided by Fanduel Sportsbook has moved from it's original 6.5-point spread to 7.5. Odds are shifting against the Hoo's and experts are feeling a similar feeling.

WEEK 6 SP+ PICKS

Bama 29, Vandy 27!
Miami 30, FSU 27
Notre Dame 38, Boise 24
Clemson 29, UNC 22
A&M 30, Miss St 25
Texas 26, Florida 17
UGA 35, UK 17
Navy 40, Air Force 21 (uh, 20-1 probably more likely)https://t.co/ugeTVlHZMY pic.twitter.com/ExMnaufGqF

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 29, 2025

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Week Six vs Week Five

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) scores a touchdown s Florida State Seminoles defensive back Ja'Bril Rawls (11) defends during the second quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The interesting point to emphasize here is that this week's projection is actually a bigger supporter of the Louisville Cardinals against UVA than Florida State, last week.

SP+ projected the Hoo's to only fall to FSU by three points, which obviously did not end up happening but the point remains that means SP+ believes Louisville is a better team than FSU given their wide array of variables.

I understand UVA is playing on the road, and given their record against Louisville on the road, the experts are not liking their odds. However, I think this Virginia team has proven to be a step above Cavaliers' teams in the recent past. They look to be contenders atop of the ACC as the offense continues to dominate opponents thus far in 2025.

Also, Louisville is coming off an electric road win of their own over Pitt, scoring 14 points in the fourth quater to seal their fourth win of the season and remain perfect. I think Pitt really dropped the ball in that matchup but, nonetheless, it was a solid come-from-behind victory over a conference opponent.

Experts Pick The Under

Sep 5, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss (7) runs the ball against the James Madison Dukes during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated James Madison 28-14. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

SP+ also projected the final score to be under the current 62.5 total mark on Fanduel. Their score prediction puts the projected total at 59 points. A total line over 60 points is pretty incredible but these two teams have incredibly hot offenses coming into the week.

Virginia has the second besting offense in the ACC, including the second-best rushing attack and third-ranked rushing game in the conference. Louisville ranks closer to the middle of the pack in the ACC but their last game proved they have grit to pull out hard-fought wins if given the opportunity. Quarterback Miller Moss had one of his best games as a Cardinal, so far. Moss came into college as the 15th-best quarterback recruit back in 2021. If Moss can tap that potential he came into college with, this Louisville team can continue to improve and make noise in the ACC.

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