SP+ Predicts the Final Score for No. 15 Virginia vs California

Will Virginia be able to defeat California on Saturday?

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers players celebrate after stopping North Carolina Tar Heels short of the goal line on a two point try to win in overtime at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Virginia has yet another close matchup on Saturday, this time against North Carolina. The Cavaliers have developed a habit of going into overtime and just barely managing to come out on top. Although this isn't an intentional strategy, it has served them well thus far. However, their success could be short-lived if they don't start pulling ahead earlier.

"... I told the guys, man, we've been here before, right? Unfortunately, this is what we do, right? We take it all the way down to the end," said head coach Tony Elliott during his recent postgame press conference. "But I could sense the same, you know, just like the same attitude and belief as I did in the Florida State game. And I think that kind of started it, and then it carried over into the Louisville game and then today. So the guys just had confidence that we were going to play however long it takes. And that's one of the bedrocks of our program is we play 60 minutes or however long it takes to find a way to win the game."

California is 5-3 overall a 2-2 in conference play. While they certainly aren't the most daunting opponents UVA has faced this year — that title can be awarded to Florida State — the Golden Bears know how to put up a fight. Virginia has grown quite comfortable with last-minute scoring, but that might not be an option for them this time around.

ESPN's Bill Connelly Releases Latest SP+ Prediction

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) passes the ball as Virginia Cavaliers defensive tackles Anthony Britton (55) and Jason Hammond (91) pressure in the first quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Virginia is favored to win against California, and the chances of that changing at this point are incredibly slim. ESPN analyst Bill Connelly released his SP+ projections for week ten, which show the Cavaliers securing the victory by a score of 30-22. Connelly gives UVA a 69% chance of winning the matchup over the Golden Bears.

WEEK 10 SP+ PICKS

Texas 26, Vandy 24
USC 30, Nebraska 28
Oklahoma 28, Tennessee 27
Georgia 31, Florida 21
Miami 31, SMU 23
Utah 31, Cincy 22
Texas Tech 33, K-State 21
North Texas 36, Navy 30
Air Force 29.9, Army 29.7

LOTS of ranked teams on the road...https://t.co/bffNKIvOHb pic.twitter.com/1fvr0Nd59t

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 26, 2025

Connelly is the mastermind behind the SP+. In short, he describes the projection as, "simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

"... it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing," Connelly detailed. "It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does."

UVA has shocked the nation several times this season, and it isn’t over just yet. Elliott's program is full of incredible skill, and they've only grown more confident and capable. Anything can happen in college football; games are never promised, but it can't be denied that Virginia is one of the most impactful teams this season, particularly within the ACC.