Three reasons to be optimistic about Virginia's 2027 football recruiting class

National recruiting analysts have not been exactly overwhelmed by Virginia's 2027 football recruiting class.

With a baker's dozen high school commitments so far, the Cavaliers have earned a modest No. 59 national ranking from 247Sports. Among the 17 Atlantic Coast Conference schools, they check in at No. 15, ahead of only Florida State and SMU.

All 13 of their pledges are rated as three-star recruits. (The one four-star prospect who had chosen the Cavaliers, Roanoke receiver DeMarcus Brown, recently flipped his commitment to Virginia Tech.)

It's important to remember that these are all mere projections. A significant percentage of the most highly rated prospects never pan out, suffer injuries or transfer. And some of the most productive college players begin their careers as walk-ons or one- or two-star prospects.

Plus, acquiring talented high school players is only the first step in building a winning program. Developing them and retaining them -- especially in a new era of NIL and the transfer portal -- are equally (if not more) vital.

Still, there's cause for Virginia fans to be heartened by the incoming class of 2027. Here are three reasons for optimism:

1. The class is growing (and has more room to grow)

Seven of Virginia's 12 2027 commitments have made their choices in June alone. And most of them did so before leaving Grounds on their official visits.

Andy Stedem, an edge pass rusher from Avon, Conn., said this about Virginia head coach Tony Elliott in announcing his commitment: "I believe that he's probably the best coach in the country right now. I believe in what he's building, and I think that it's the best spot for me - being there with him as my head coach."

Most recruits make similar comments about their future homes. But Elliott and his staff seem to have identified players who fit their system, regardless of the number of stars attached to their names, and have connected not only with the players but their families. Having a strong academic background as well as NIL funds certainly helps.

2. Cavs are building on success

There's no better time to recruit than when you're winning. In the past, Elliott and his staff could only speak of what they hoped to build. Coming off a school-record 11-win season, they can point to legitimate progress. And Elliott is no longer on the coaching hot seat, which made it harder for recruits to be sure he would be there for the duration of their college careers.

For the past two seasons, Virginia has relied heavily on the transfer portal, with good results. That approach can be difficult to sustain, though, and the lifeblood of any perennially successful program is high school recruiting -- especially in its home state.

While talent is talent, no matter where it comes from, Virginia's most successful run came in the 1990s. That's when George Welsh mined the Commonwealth for star players like Shawn and Herman Moore, Terry Kirby, Chris Slade, Ronde and Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, and many more.

Slade, who is now Virginia's defensive ends coach, is one of the few current assistants with ties to the state. It has taken Elliott and his staff time to connect with state high school coaches, which may help explain why the Cavaliers haven't secured pledges from any of the state's top 17 prospects, according to 247Sports. (James Franklin's arrival at Virginia Tech also factors into the equation.)

But Virginia has snagged six in-state Class of 2027 players, and reportedly is in the mix for at least two more. That bodes well for the future.

3. They're beating out big-name programs

Virginia may never be able to go head to head with national powerhouses for top recruits. The Commonwealth's three highest-rated 2027 prospects, according to 247Sports -- L.C. Bird edge rusher Chris Whitehead, Roanoke Catholic offensive tackle Elijah Hutcheson and Battlefield linebacker Noah Glover -- have committed to LSU, Florida and Miami, respectively.

But the Cavaliers are winning many recruiting battles against other Power 4 conference schools. Varina cornerback Sa Rex, who chose Virginia on Friday, had offers from Penn State, Northwestern and Pittsburgh. Fellow corner Semajay Robinson flipped his commitment from the Nittany Lions to choose Virginia.

Many of the Cavaliers' other 2027 commitments also had offers from (and took visits to) rival ACC schools. The fact that they chose Virginia indicates that the Cavaliers have a lot to offer.

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