Virginia's Path to the Playoffs: How the Hoos Can Continue Their Cinderella Run

Now that UVA has hit the bye week, we can take a second and look at their path to the playoffs as we are about midway through the season.

Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) celebrates a touchdown with offensive lineman Noah Josey (77) during the overtime against the Louisville Cardinals at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Virginia defeated Louisville 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Virginia is having one of their hottest starts of the season and they look well on their way to a bowl appearance. ESPN FPI predicts Virginia will finish the season with an outstanding record of 10-2. FPI also gives the Hoo's a 15% chance to win the entire ACC and a 13% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Let's take a look at some must-win games for the Cavaliers if they want to see those ACC-championship and potential national championship aspirations through.

Week Nine: California

Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz (left) greets California Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (3) following their game at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

California is a sneaky good team in the ACC this season. True Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has hit some potholes here and there, but he has the talent to sneak up on you and put up major points if your defense is sleeping. Sagapolutele dazzled in the Golden Bears' win over Boston College and in the Big Ten matchup against Minnesota.

Meantime, defensive back Hezekiah Masses has already picked off four passes and defended six passes, as well. His four interceptions are tied for the second-most in the country. Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris has shown put the ball in harm's way a few times this year so he would want to avoid testing Masses with any risky passes.

Week Eleven: Duke

Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) talks with a television reporter following his team’s 45-21 victory over the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Duke has a chance to move to 5-2 on the year, with a 4-0 record in the ACC if they can take down a ranked Georgia Tech team in Week Seven. Duke will certainly be ranked if that happens. Quarterback Darian Mensah is one of the most talented passers in the country, elevating this Duke program after the departure of quarterback Maalik Murphy for Oregon State.

Freshman running back Nate Shepherd has also exploded onto the scene, averaging eight yards a carry on his way to four scores through six weeks. According to 247Sports, Shepherd enrolled at Duke as a three-star recruit and the 33rd-best running back prospect in the class of 2024.

Week Twelve: Virginia Tech

Oct 4, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) looks to pass during the first quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech is certainly having a down year, but the Virginia and Virginia Tech rivalry is still real. The winner of this game not only walks off the field with bragging rights but also with what is commonly referred to as the "Commonwealth Cup."

Virginia has faced off against the Hokies a total of 100 times in program history. The Hoo's have won just 33 of those meetings for a winning percentage of around 36%. UVA has allowed 448 more points than they have scored against VT.

Recent history is not any friendlier to Virginia. Virginia Tech has won the last four matchups and 19 of the last 20. Sadly, Virginia's offense has scored over 21 points in just four of those previous 20 games. If all goes well, UVA has the chance to earn its first win as a ranked team against Virginia Tech since 1998. Virginia's offense was led by future NFL first-round pick running back Thomas Jones and fourth-round pick quarterback Aaron Brooks. Wide receiver Kevin Coffey finished the game with 111 yards and a touchdown.