Tilock: Revisiting my 2025 predictions for Virginia football

About a year ago, I co-wrote an article for The Cavalier Daily in which the football beat writers shared their predictions for the 2025 season. Virginia was coming off a 5-7 season full of both promise and purgatory, with a pivotal campaign ahead. Some national media preemptively declared that the Cavaliers would flounder. A slim minority predicted a minor breakthrough.

I don’t think many people outside of the program would have predicted Virginia to finish atop the ACC standings. Other than that, when I revisited my 2025 predictions, I found that they weren’t too off-course. Let’s take a look.

“Virginia will go 6-6”

Verdict: Wrong, but correct in spirit.

In my defense, I did open my record predictions with the line “Elliott will lead Virginia to a bowl game,” which he did, but the Cavaliers nearly doubled my win prediction. Time for a phrase all are familiar with — in 2025, Virginia won 11 games, the most in a single season in program history. The Cavaliers went to the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, one of the top bowl games outside the College Football Playoff. Virginia ultimately beat an SEC team. It was a storybook season for the Cavaliers.

“Florida State will be the most exciting game”

Verdict: Correct.

My reasoning was correct, as I said that the Seminoles are an up-and-down team and that 2025 would be an opportune time to host them. However, it would have been difficult to predict that Florida State would beat Alabama to start the year, rise to become a top-10 team and then spiral to a losing record by season’s end. It would have also been difficult to predict that the Cavaliers-Seminoles game would become one of the most iconic wins in program history, and feature one of the most viral moments in all of college football — the instant field storm.

“Kam Robinson will be the team’s most impactful player”

Verdict: Debatable, but probably incorrect.

There is no denying that Robinson is one of Virginia’s most valuable players. However, others may have been more impactful. When Robinson played, the Cavaliers gave up 21.6 points per game. Without him, that number actually improved to 16.8. To be fair, two of those games without the star linebacker were against Coastal Carolina and William & Mary — but other games without Robinson included Duke and Missouri. Virginia was able to thrive without him.

Chandler Morris, J’Mari Taylor, an offensive lineman, James Jackson or a cornerback may have been “more impactful.” In particular, Morris probably takes the mantle given that backup quarterback Daniel Kaelin failed to score a touchdown when he took over for a majority of the Wake Forest game.

“This could be the year Virginia beats Virginia Tech”

Verdict: Correct.

Even though I was more cautious with the wording of this prediction, it was still bold. In the first two matchups under Elliott, the Cavaliers lost by an average of 29 points. There was little reason to believe Virginia would win the Commonwealth Cup. But as the season played out, Virginia Tech collapsed and fired Coach Brent Pry, the Cavaliers soared and the result was a 27-7 blowout victory for Virginia. The Hokies’ offense was one fantastic play away from being shut out.

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