UVA Women's Basketball: Evaluating Virginia's NCAA Tournament Outlook

Virginia Athletics

Sitting at 11-8 overall and 3-4 in conference, Virginia Women’s Basketball finds itself on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble. But after three wins and two close losses to ranked opponents over the last five games, Coach Mox has her squad looking more and more like a tournament team. With 11 games remaining, let’s look at what the Cavaliers need to do to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

How will the committee evaluate teams?

The NCAA website features a laundry list of “selection criteria” the committee uses to select the 36 at-large teams. Many are what you would expect: quality wins, bad losses, strength of schedule, conference performance, etc. But one metric, the NET rankings, stands out as the NCAA’s own tool for ranking teams. Similar to the old RPI system, the NET rankings serve as a way to combine all potential considerations into one number. Starting this year, the women’s selection committee will use the Quadrant system, which was adopted by the men’s selection committee in 2017.

The Quad system sorts all games into four categories of games, with Quad 1 being the toughest and Quad 4 the easiest. In the women’s game, a Quad 1 game is defined as a home game against a top 25 NET team, a neutral site game against a top 35 team, or an away game against a top 45 opponent. The other three quads follow a similar format. You may notice that these definitions are harsher than their men’s equivalent. This means that Quad 1 wins will be harder to come by and Quad 3 and 4 losses more difficult to avoid than in the men’s game.

How is UVA’s resume in the NET rankings?

In order to have a chance for an at-large bid, the Cavaliers need to get their NET ranking to around 50. Currently the UVA women’s team is ranked 78th in the NET ranking. Although they still have room to make up, they were ranked 102nd after the Notre Dame loss on December 29th, so the Hoos are trending in the right direction. Now let’s take a look at their NET resume:

Virginia women's basketball current NCAA Tournament resume - wins and losses sorted into Quadrants. | Luke Lamberson

There are a few initial takeaways that stand out. The Hoos' 0-4 record in Quad 1 is unfortunate, especially given how close the losses to Duke and NC State were. While those narrow losses did improve UVA’s ranking, both would have satisfied the “quality wins” component of the selection criteria. Secondly, the three Q3 losses and Q4 loss to Washington State are very restricting in the Quad era. With a few bad losses and no signature wins, it is easy to see why UVA is on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament conversation.

With that said, there are 11 games to be played, including seven Quad 1 and Quad 2 opportunities. I see five major steps for UVA to make the tournament:

Sweep the remaining Q3 and Q4 games

With the losses the Cavaliers have already endured in the lower quadrants, UVA must take care of business in four away games against lower tier ACC teams. The Hoos have struggled with consistency in the past, but these are non-negotiable. Margin of victory is a factor in these rankings, so big wins would help their chances as well.

Steal a Quad 1 game

There are only two opportunities left: Georgia Tech on January 23rd and UNC on March 2nd. The Hoos will be heavy underdogs in both, but UVA fans know this team is capable of beating anyone. Adding a quality win to the resume would boost their NET ranking and add a signature win to the resume.

Win three more Q2 games

The Wahoos have only played two Q2 games this season and have won both against Virginia Tech and Clemson. Stringing these wins together are critical, as these are the teams UVA are competing against for the final at-large spots. According to ESPN, Virginia Tech is the second to last team currently in the tournament. With five more opportunities (and all five at home), UVA has a great opportunity to play themselves back into the field.

Root for Washington State, Auburn, and Boston College

This one may sound a little funny, but you may notice that these three teams are near the top of their Quads. If they close their seasons well, their NET ranking could improve such that these losses would jump a Quadrant. For example, if Washington State finishes the year ranked 103 in NET, then this Q4 loss becomes a Q3 one, helping UVA’s resume.

Make a run in the ACC Tournament

Coach Mox has improved UVA Women’s Basketball in nearly every way since taking over 3 years ago, but has yet to win her first ACC Tournament game. This tournament will provide the Hoos with an opportunity to boost their resume as seven ACC teams would qualify as a Q1 win on a neutral court. Of course, if the Hoos don’t do enough in the regular season, they also could just win the ACC Tournament and automatically qualify for the Big Dance.

UVA is going to need a hot finish to the season to overcome their slow start, but with their recent performances against Duke and NC State, anything is possible. UVA will look for their first Q1 win against Georgia Tech on Thursday, January 23rd at 7pm in John Paul Jones Arena.

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