SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-Wake Forest Final Score

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has released the latest update to his SP+ rankings, providing a fresh look at where programs across the country stand, in his opinion, entering Week 6. Along with the updated ratings, Connelly also projects win probabilities for each matchup on the slate.

WEEK 6 SP+ PICKS

Bama 29, Vandy 27!
Miami 30, FSU 27
Notre Dame 38, Boise 24
Clemson 29, UNC 22
A&M 30, Miss St 25
Texas 26, Florida 17
UGA 35, UK 17
Navy 40, Air Force 21 (uh, 20-1 probably more likely)https://t.co/ugeTVlHZMY pic.twitter.com/ExMnaufGqF
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 29, 2025

First off: what is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Wake Forest (2-2, 0-2 ACC) rose six spots to No. 72, following its close 30-29 loss to Georgia Tech. Its offense ranks No. 87 with a tally of 24.1, its defense is No. 57 with a score of 24.5 and its special teams is No. 108 with a tally of -0.1. The Demon Deacons have a cumulative total of -0.6. [Editor's note: a higher number is better on offense, while a lower number is better on defense.]

Meanwhile, the Hokies (2-3, 1-0 ACC) have a cumulative total of -2.8 and sit at No. 79 in the country, having gained three spots since its Week 5 triumph over NC State. The offense ranks No. 81 with a score of 25.5, its defense sits at No. 83 with a score of 28.5 and its special teams sits at No. 26 with a tally of 0.2.

Connelly's projections predict a 26-25 triumph for Virginia Tech, give the Hokies a 51% chance of claiming the victory and favor NC State by 0.3 points; his over/under is set at 50.5, one point lower than ESPN BET's. Connelly's pick is over and his against the spread pick is Wake Forest.

Connelly's SP+ predictions for Saturday's showdown is a sizable chunk away from ESPN BET's odds, which currently list the Hokies as 4.5-point favorites.

Virginia Tech will contest the Demon Deacons on Saturday, Oct. 4 at 1 p.m. ET. Viewers can watch the game on the CW.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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