Surprise Contender? Virginia Tech Football Given ACC's Fourth-Highest Playoff Odds By ESPN's FPI

Oct 17, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Boston College Eagles at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Last offseason, Virginia Tech was the preseason darling in the ACC to win the conference and make a surprise playoff appearance. The Hokies did not live up to those expectations though and ended up going 6-7. They had a lot of talent leave for the NFL Draft and through the transfer portal, as well as having to replace both coordinators. The optimism is not quite at the same level it was at a year ago in Blacksburg, but there is one big believer in Virginia Tech this preseason and it is ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index).

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Clemson is the leader to make the CFP heading into 2025, with a 47.3% chance and they are followed closely by Miami at 46.3%. Go down the list a little bit to find SMU at third with a 21.1% chance to get back to the playoff and then at No. 4 is Virginia Tech, with a 12.5% chance to get to college football's biggest stage.

Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:

1. Miami (No. 9 overall)

2. Clemson (No. 11)

3. SMU (No. 20)

4. Virginia Tech (No.26)

5. Georgia Tech (No. 28)

6. Louisville (No. 41)

7. Florida State (No. 48)

8. Boston College (No. 50)

9. North Carolina (No. 51)

10. Duke (No. 54)

11. NC State (No. 57)

12. Pittsburgh (No. 58)

13. California (No. 60)

14. Syracuse (No. 62)

15. Virginia (No. 63)

16. Stanford (No. 64)

17. Wake Forest (No. 89)

Here is how Virginia Tech's 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:

Aug. 31st- South Carolina (No. 15 Overall)

Sept. 6th- Vanderbilt (No. 56)

Sept. 13th- Old Dominion (No. 97)

Sept. 27th- NC State (No. 57)

Oct. 4th- Wake Forest (No. 89)

Oct. 11th- Georgia Tech (No. 28)

Oct. 24th- California (No. 60)

Nov. 1st- Louisville (No. 41)

Nov. 15th- Florida State (No. 48)

Nov. 22nd- Miami (9th)

Nov. 29th- Virginia (63rd)

If FPI is correct, this is a very favorable schedule for the Hokies and they are only ranked below two teams they play this season, South Carolina and Miami. FPI has the Hokies 20 spots higher than Bill Connelly's SP+ and seems to be much higher on this team heading into the season than anyone else. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong.