Three Reasons Virginia Tech Can Exceed Its Projected Win Total

Virginia Tech football sits in a position where its 2026 season can go in a myriad of ways. The Hokies, under new head coach James Franklin, welcome in 50 new transfers/high school recruits.

Hokie Nation, we got our guy 🤝

Coach Franklin’s here to win 🏆

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— Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) November 17, 2025

CBS Sports and FanDuel projected Virginia Tech to have a 7.5 over/under win total. Here's three reasons why the Hokies could exceed that mark.

No. 1: The early schedule shakes out well to give Virginia Tech a momentum boost.

If things shake out the right way, Virginia Tech can claim its first seven games. Here's how that initial seven-game slate shakes out:

Sept. 5: VMI
Sept. 12: Old Dominion
Sept. 19: Maryland
Sept. 26: Boston College
Oct. 2: Pittsburgh
Oct. 10: California
Oct. 17: Georgia Tech

Old Dominion (Colton Joseph) and Georgia Tech (Haynes King) will both usher in new starting quarterbacks, and though Pittsburgh is coming off a tied-second-place finish in the ACC, that comes with the caveat that five teams ended up tied for the position.

Below is a bit about Pittsburgh's quarterback Mason Heintschel from ESPN's Bill Connelly that was published in his pre-spring QB rankings (March 5). Heintschel was ranked No. 46.

"In his first five career starts, Heintschel averaged 302 passing yards per game and 7.4 yards per dropback with a QBR of 70.4 (which is excellent for a freshman). Pitt averaged 40 points per game and went 5-0, too. Then came the freshman wall. His last four starts: 202 yards per game, 4.5 yards per dropback, 38.2 QBR, 20.3 points per game and a 1-3 record. His ceiling is high, his floor is low, and in 2026, his receiving corps will be awfully new. You could justify ranking him in the 20s or 60s here, and I guess I'm just splitting the difference."

The new projected Georgia Tech starter, Alberto Mendoza, ranked No. 41. Only one of Virginia Tech's first seven opponents had a quarterback ranked higher than Tech's: California's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (No. 22). Given that level of comfort, Virginia Tech can expect a solid start that puts it in position to beat its win total.

No. 2: Ethan Grunkemeyer offers a presumable higher ceiling under center.

In the same article, Connelly ranked Grunkemeyer No. 26 of all quarterbacks. Here's what he had to say

"When Grunkemeyer took over as Penn State's QB last season as a true freshman, the team had just lost Drew Allar to injury and had fired James Franklin after a devastating three-game losing streak. There was no reason to think this was going to go well, but he nearly led upsets of Iowa and Indiana, then managed a four-game winning streak to finish the season. He doesn't stand out either physically or statistically, but he's an excellent, quick decision-maker, and in his last three starts, he produced an 85.2 QBR and 76% completion rate. Now he follows Franklin to Blacksburg."

Under third-year starter Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech's offense was often stagnant, sputtering to a 3-9 finish and losing six of its last seven. Though portions of that come down to a leaky offensive line, Drones quarterback rating of 52.4 ranked No. 96 in the country. That total ranked 13th in the ACC, ahead of four other quarterbacks: North Carolina's Gio Lopez (51.4), Wake Forest's Robby Ashford (48.1), Stanford's Ben Gulbranson (32.1) and Syracuse's Rickie Collins (30.1). All four of those schools will be going with new starters for the 2026 season.

No. 3: Though Virginia Tech is relatively unproven under center, the room offers a potentially high ceiling.

Beyond Grunkemeyer, who started the final seven games of the 2025 season for Penn State, none of Virginia Tech's other three quarterbacks have any snaps at the collegiate level.

Bryce Baker and Kelden Ryan did not see any game action in their true freshman years at UNC and Virginia Tech, respectively, while true freshman Troy Huhn entered as a early enrollee in January.

Given that Baker was a highly touted recruit coming out of high school and was part of the first wave under Bill Belicheck, plus Huhn's prowess thus far in spring ball — per Franklin, he tallied four touchdowns and one interception in last Saturday's scrimmage — Virginia Tech could be in a solid position beyond its starting quarterback. Time will tell, however, and Virginia Tech could just as easily hit below its projected win mark as it could exceed it.

Virginia Tech's 2026 season kicks off on Saturday, Sept. 5, when the Hokies host VMI.