Virginia Tech Football: SP+ Projects Where The Hokies Will Finish In The ACC

Nov 9, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies head coach Brent Pry leads his team onto the filed with Virginia Tech Hokies wide receiver Takye Heath (2) before the game at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

The 2025 College Football Season is inching closer and closer and for Virginia Tech, the vibes are a little different this summer compared to last summer.

Virginia Tech seemed like a program that was trending up under Pry. They finished the 2023 season strong and were returning a ton of starters from that team, and seemingly had a favorable schedule in front of them. They were talked about as the dark horse to win the ACC and make the college football playoff, but it wasn't long before that was proven to be false. Now, the roster has been flipped, they have two new coordinators, and expectations are not as high as they were a year ago. However, the volatility on this team is pretty high. There are enough pieces on the roster and a light enough schedule to make you think the Hokies could be a surprise contender in the ACC if everything clicks. If everything does not click though, the floor is low enough for them to potentially miss a bowl game.

ESPN's Bill Connelly (creator of SP+) previewed the ACC yesterday and while the Hokies landed at No. 9 for the ACC, he provided a path for them to make some noise.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Here is how SP+ sees the ACC race heading into the season:

1. Clemson (8th nationally)

2. Miami (12th)

3. SMU (20th)

4. Louisville (24th)

5. Florida State (36th)

6. Duke (41st)

7. NC State (42nd)

8. Georgia Tech (44th)

9. Virginia Tech (46th)

10. Pittsburgh (47th)

11. North Carolina (54th)

12. Syracuse (56th)

13. Boston College (62nd)

14. Cal (65th)

15. Virginia (79th)

16. Wake Forest (81st)

17. Stanford (88th)

Oct 17, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Boston College Eagles at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Connelly broke each ACC team into three tiers: Conference and CFP contenders, a couple of breaks away from a run, and just looking for a path to 6-6. The Hokies fell into the second tier, and here is how Connelly sees Virginia Tech heading into 2025.

"In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry's team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry's fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.

Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he's a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.

On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn't often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.

On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation's best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai'i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.

On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it's not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.

It might not be an exaggeration to say that Virginia Tech's season could hinge on whether or not Kyron Drones can stay healthy and rediscover his 2023 form.

This Virginia Tech offense is going to look a lot different around Drones in 2025. It is a new look backfield, wide receiver group, and offensive line this season and Drones is going to be working with a new offensive coordinator. Head coach Brent Pry brought in former Baylor and Auburn offensive coordinator Phillip Montgomery to call the plays and lead the offense. Montgomery spoke highly of Drones ability this spring to be a building block for the offense this season:

"Yeah, I think he's done an outstanding job. As we've sat through meetings and been able to start talking ball and installing, I think he's picking it up well as long as well as you know a lot of the other guys offensively you know this thing won't be all about about him you know it's about us as a unit and what we can accomplish as a unit and it's 11 guys paying attention to details and executing on the field so obviously a lot of it starts and stops with him but I could say the same thing about the offensive line it all starts and stops with them as well."

With so many new faces on the offense and a new coordinator, what should be the reasonable expectation for Drones this season? Will we see the talented player who looked like one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country in 2023? Or will the inconsistencies slow him down, as well as all of the new faces? Virginia Tech has a huge test to start the season against South Carolina, which had one of the best defenses in the country last season. If Drones is healthy and playing like his 2023 self, this could be a closer game than many expect.