What Does ESPN's FPI Predict for Virginia Tech’s Remaining 2025 Games After Old Dominion Loss?

Following Virginia Tech football's third straight loss of the 2025 campaign, what's the outlook now on ESPN's FPI?

Sep 13, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech receiver Ayden Greene (0) runs after a catch during the third quarter. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Following Week 3 of the season, Virginia Tech football has found itself in an 0-3 hole, the first time it has started the season with three straight losses since 1987.

Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 4, here's some quick tidbits on how Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 73 on the projected chart, 13 spots below last week's No. 60 ranking. with their projected record now sitting at 3.7-8.3. At the time of writing, which is Wednesday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 6.9% odds of claiming six wins, 0.2% odds of winning the ACC title, and 0% odds of qualifying for the College Football] Playoff and making for the National Championship game.

Tech's Week 3 loss came against Old Dominion, which is now ranked at No. 56 on the FPI.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections:

Game 4, vs. Wofford (FCS) - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 97% chance to win (down 1.1%)

Yes, Virginia Tech enters the contest being on its first 0-3 start since Frank Beamer's first year. But FCS Wofford is winless... in the FCS. Barring a catastrophe, the Hokies should claim this one.

FPI record: 1-3

Game 5, at NC State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 31.4% chance to win (down 12.1%)

CJ Bailey's tallied the 12th-highest QBR through Week 3 and appears to be more settled this year than he was in 2024. A game that the Hokies were favored to win at the start of this year has completely shifted the other way and this loss sends Tech to 1-4 if the season was comprised entirely by FPI.

FPI record: 1-4, 0-1 ACC

Game 6, vs. Wake Forest - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 76.8% chance to win (down 5.1%)

Alongside Wofford and California, this is the only other game where the Hokies are favored. The Demon Deacons have higher odds of claiming six wins (18.3%) by way of winning their first two non-conference games, something Tech hasn't done. However, in this scenario, the Hokies claim their second and penultimate win of the season.

FPI record: 2-4, 1-1 ACC

Game 7, at Georgia Tech - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 17% chance to win (down 5%)

Now-ranked Georgia Tech possesses a resounding advantage into this contest and should be firing on all cylinders entering this matchup. Haynes King could be the ACC Player of the Year come year's end with the way that Cade Klubnik has struggled to start this season (Klubnik is currently No. 100 in QBR, nine spots behind Drones at No. 91). Jamal Haynes appears as dangerous as ever. This Yellow Jackets squad is one I believe could push for an ACC Championship bid if the right things break its way.

FPI record: 2-5, 1-2 ACC

Game 8, vs. California - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 55.7% chance to win (down 13.3%)

Now led by true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele under center, the Golden Bears now appear to be more of a spoiler. Cal has claimed its first three games of the season, including a 27-14 triumph over Minnesota this past Saturday. However, Virginia Tech is still favored and if taking the season only by FPI, claims its third and final win of the season here.

FPI record: 3-5, 2-2 ACC

Game 9, vs. Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 34.1% chance to win (down 9.1%)

The Hokies' chance against Louisville have dropped to below 40%; although the Cardinals aren't expected to be an ACC sleeper like they were for parts of last season, I believe Miller Moss is decent under center and is more consistent than Drones, leading the Hokies to drop their first of four straight contests.

FPI record: 3-6, 2-3 ACC

Game 10, at Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 17.4% chance to win (down 6.8%)

The FPI takes part of last season's results into account when determining rankings. Last year's catastrophic 2-10 campaign for Florida State is part of the reason why they're No. 27 in the nation. But Tommy Castellanos has anchored an attack that looks reborn.

FPI record: 3-7, 2-4 ACC

Game 11, vs. Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 13% chance to win (down 13.9%)

Miami has reclaimed the mantle of being the Hokies' toughest game FPI-wise. The Hurricanes now have vaulted from having 73.1% odds of claiming their contest against Tech all the way up to 87%. With Carson Beck appearing rejuvenated in orange and green, this one has all the makings of being a blowout loss for the Hokies.

FPI record: 3-8, 2-5 ACC

Game 12, at Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 26.2% chance to win (down 8.3%)

Yes, Virginia Tech has claimed 20 of the last 21 contests. But all signs right now point to the Cavaliers at last being a decent team that is capitalizing when the Hokies appear down and out. I think that this game will be closer than the FPI suggests, but at least taking only FPI into account, the Hokies are handed their fourth straight loss to close out a dismal campaign.

FPI record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC