Will Ethan Grunkemeyer be the ACC's Breakout QB in 2026?

Ethan Grunkemeyer has everything he needs to break out in the ACC in 2026.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) looks to throw during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Nov. 1, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

His first three career starts came against Iowa, Ohio State and Indiana. Three of the top-10 defenses in the country. Penn State had just fired its head coach. The starter, Drew Allar, was done for the year. And a redshirt freshman from Lewis Center, Ohio, was the one they handed the ball to.

He lost his first three games. Then he won four in a row.

That's the short version of how Ethan Grunkemeyer ended up in Blacksburg, and why the expectations around him are already a lot bigger than anything Virginia Tech has had to manage at quarterback in years.

The resume entering year two.

The full-season numbers look fine on the surface: 1,339 passing yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions. But the number that actually matters is the one at the end. Over his final four starts, Grunkemeyer threw zero interceptions. He closed Penn State's year by going 23-of-34 for 262 yards and two touchdowns in a 22-10 Pinstripe Bowl win over Clemson. He got better every week, which is the only thing that really tells you anything about a young quarterback.

His completion rate for the season was 69.1%. For reference, that number would be a Virginia Tech single-season record. Hendon Hooker set the current mark at 65.3% in 2020.

The Franklin Factor

James Franklin recruited Grunkemeyer out of Olentangy High School as a consensus four-star and coached him at Penn State. When he got the Virginia Tech job in November 2025, landing Grunkemeyer was the biggest domino of the offseason. He committed Jan. 14, reuniting with Franklin, offensive coordinator Ty Howle and quarterbacks coach Danny O'Brien, the same staff he had in State College. He's not learning a new system from scratch. He's running back a familiar one with better weapons around him.

Franklin hasn't handed him the job. He called the competition "fluid" heading into spring ball, and UNC transfer Bryce Baker made it interesting, finishing the spring game with 140 passing yards and 32 rushing yards. Grunkemeyer went 13-of-17 for 136 yards with a touchdown and an interception. 

How the media views him.

CBS Sports' Austin Nivison ranked Grunkemeyer sixth among ACC quarterbacks in March, writing that he "gives the Hokies reason to believe they could be in for a quick turnaround." Sixth. Some Hokie fans thought that was disrespectful, and it's hard to argue too hard against them. The players ahead of him have more starts. They also haven't done what he did down the stretch against ranked defenses as a first-time starter with a fired coach in the building.

ESPN's Billy Tucker named Grunkemeyer the most important newcomer for Virginia Tech, saying he "gives this rebuild a real foundation." Fox Sports' Joel Klatt was publicly high on him in February. Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines, the 2025 Broyles Award winner, told Klatt that Grunkemeyer nearly beat his Hoosiers.

The top of the ACC belongs to Darian Mensah, who threw for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns at Duke before heading to Miami. NC State's CJ Bailey and SMU's Kevin Jennings are a clear second tier. Grunkemeyer isn't in that conversation yet. Whether he gets there depends on how much of last fall carried over and whether the pieces Franklin built around him hold up once the season starts.

Virginia Tech went 3-9 last year. The bar isn't Mensah's numbers. It's just being relevant again. Grunkemeyer is young, accurate, experienced under pressure and surrounded by coaches who know exactly what he can and can't do.