ACC vs Big Ten Challenge: Day 2 Previews and Predictions
After the first day of games in the 24th Big 10-ACC Challenge, the ACC holds a 2-0 lead over the Big Ten. Virginia Tech defeated Minnesota 67-57, while Pitt trounced Northwestern, 87-58. With six more games today– including the Wake Forest Demon Deacons– let’s preview and pick each matchup.
No. 22 Maryland (6-0) @ Louisville (0-6)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN2
Line: Maryland -13
Total: 135.5
Maryland looks like a contender under first year head coach Kevin Willard. Willard took Seton Hall to the NCAA tournament last year, and early on it looks like he could be back in that position again. The Terps have been good on both sides of the ball this season, averaging 82.7 points per game while giving up only 61.3. One of the reasons for their success is experience. Five of Willard's top six guys are seniors. Hakim Hart and Donta Scott lead the way as returners, and senior transfers Jahmir Young and Don Carey have fit in almost perfectly so far. The lone sophomore in the rotation, Julian Reese, is shooting an incredible 80.4% from the field. It’s not a deep Maryland rotation, but Willard’s group is rolling in 2022.
Former Wake Forest head coach Danny Manning was the interim head coach at Maryland last season, and he went 10-14. Now an assistant at Louisville, Manning and the Cardinals will attempt to pull off an unlikely upset on Tuesday. Louisville is 171st in KenPom, the second-lowest ranking of any power five team in the country, and they are one of seven teams in the country without a win. After losing their first three games by a total of three points, Louisville lost their three games at the Maui Invitational by a combined 80. Senior guard El Ellis is the only Cardinal averaging double-digit points this season, as first-year head coach Kenny Payne has yet to coach his team to a victory.
The Pick: Maryland -12.5
The undefeated Terrapins already have wins over St. Louis (42 in KenPom) and Miami (44) this season. Maryland is 24th in KenPom, making them the arguably the most difficult opponent Louisville has seen to date. It's impossible to back the Cardinals to cover the 12.5 with any sort of confidence. I see another blowout here.
Score Prediction: Maryland 82, Louisville 58
Penn State (6-1) @ Clemson (5-2)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPNU
Line: Clemson -1
Total: 134
Penn State and head coach Micah Shrewsberry are trying to make it to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011. With senior guard Jalen Pickett leading the way, the Nittany Lions look like they will be competitive in the Big Ten. Pickett does a bit of everything – he averages 15.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game which all lead the team. His assist rate is fourth-best in the entire country. Besides Pickett, Penn State’s offense goes through senior guards Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk, who each shoot over 38% from behind the arc. As a team the Nittany Lions lead the Big Ten in three-point shooting percentage at 42.2%. Penn State picked up solid wins over Butler, Furman, and Colorado State earlier this month, but fell to Virginia Tech by two, the best opponent they have faced.
Clemson, the 66th ranked team in KenPom, has started the year with mixed results. At 5-2, the Tigers and head coach Brad Brownell have to be pleased with their five wins. Their two losses were by a combined five points. (against Iowa by three and at South Carolina by two). Chase Hunter has elevated his level of play and leads the team with 16.6 points and 5.3 assists per game. Star big man PJ Hall is still working back to full strength, as he's only played 17 minutes per game so far this year.
The Pick: Penn State +1
We've got a pick'em line here. These two teams are pretty similar in their reliance on veteran guards and three-point shooting. The line implies that Penn State is a better team, so I’m going to give them the nod here, as I see the Tigers misfortune in close games continuing. I think Pickett will be the best player on the floor, and that he’ll make all the difference in a close game.
Score Prediction: Penn State 69, Clemson 68
Syracuse (3-3) @ No. 16 Illinois (5-1)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Line: Illinois -11.5
Total: 144.5
After a 3-3 start to the 2022 season, it’s difficult to evaluate Syracuse. KenPom has them at 70th in the country, even though their best win was in overtime against Richmond. Not to mention home losses against Colgate and Bryant, which should be unacceptable for Jim Boeheim’s team. The Freshman standout Judah Mintz has been fantastic, but he was ejected in a bizarre slap-fight against Bryant which played into the Orange losing that game. Senior guard Joseph Girard is back as a deadeye shooter, but after scoring 31 against Richmond, he's only scored a combined 9 points on an abysmal 2-22 shooting from the field over his past two contests. Senior center Jesse Edwards has taken a step forward this season, averaging 14 points and 10 rebounds per game.
No. 16 Illinois is a ferocious basketball team. They score over 84 points per game, and give up just over 61. Brad Underwood’s team just flies to every loose ball. On offense, it all starts with an emerging superstar, senior guard Terrance Shannon. The Texas Tech transfer averages 20.3 points per game, and is shooting 47.1% from three-point range. He scored 29, and was 8-9 from three in Illinois’ big win over UCLA. However, Virginia held Shannon to just nine points and 1-5 from long range when the Illini lost to the Cavaliers. He's the engine behind this team, but with Baylor transfers Dain Dainja and Matthew Mayer, as well as former Kentucky commit Skyy Clark, there's plenty of talent on this roster.
The Pick: Syracuse +11.5
In this battle of orange teams, I’m confident that the more talented Illini will win. However, this line is too high against the playmaking ability and ball-handling of Girard and Mintz. Shannon has the shooting ability to disrupt the Syracuse zone, but the Orange backcourt will keep this game close.
Score Prediction: Illinois 65, Syracuse 60
Wake Forest (6-1) @ Wisconsin (5-1)
Click here to read our full preview and prediction.
Georgia Tech (4-2) @ Iowa (5-1)
Time: 9 PM EST
Channel:
Line: Iowa -16
Total: 151.5
From our own Christian Odjakjian’s weekly ACC power rankings: “Georgia Tech isn’t very good– but at least they know how to beat bad teams.” It’s true that Josh Pastner’s team has yet to be upset in their first six games, but they haven’t exactly impressed, either. The Yellow Jackets’ 122nd ranking in KenPom is reflective of that assessment. Georgia Tech is young, with only one senior among their four leading scorers. They’re also small, with just one player who averages over five minutes per game standing taller than 6’7”. Another problem for the Yellow Jackets is at the free throw line. This season, they’re 57 of 83– both numbers in the bottom three in the ACC. They've been able to win games through a balanced scoring attack, led by Deebo Coleman (11.3 ppg) and a sound, connected defense.
Despite losing sharpshooter C.J. Frederick to Kentucky and their leading scorer Keegan Murray to the NBA, the Iowa Hawkeyes have been really good in 2022. Keegan’s brother Kris is leading the team now (19.3 ppg, 9 rpg), and coach Fran McCaffrey’s team hasn’t skipped a beat. Early season victories over Seton Hall (57 in KenPom) and Clemson showcased Iowa’s ability to both score and defend in order to beat top competition. The Hawkeyes fell to an underrated TCU team over the weekend, as the stifling Horned Frogs defense held Iowa to their lowest scoring total (66) of the season. But if a top-end, physical defense is Iowa’s only weakness, then Kris Murray and the Hawkeyes are going to be tough for anyone to beat. The 23rd ranked team in the country according to KenPom, Iowa also received votes to be ranked in the AP poll this week.
The Pick: Iowa -16
Iowa has a scoring margin this season of +19, and I expect that to hold true in this one. No team has gotten within 16 points of Iowa at home this year, and Georgia Tech doesn't have the scoring punch to keep this close if the Hawkeye's shots are falling. If the Yellow Jackets start strong and take care of the ball, I could see them covering this number. But it's more likely that the better side in Iowa cruises wire to wire.
Score Prediction: Iowa 79, Georgia Tech 60
No. 3 Virginia (5-0) @ Michigan (5-1)
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Line: Virginia -4
Total: 130.5
Although they return most of the same roster after a disappointing 2021, No. 3 Virginia looks like a whole new team. The undefeated Cavaliers are the number three team in the country (5 in KenPom) for good reason. Virginia is the only team to beat No. 6 Baylor this season and the only team to beat No. 16 Illinois. Seniors Armaan Franklin, Jayden Gardner, Kihei Clark, and Ben Vander Plaas are playing very impressive, team-oriented basketball. They’re joined by juniors Kadin Shedrick and Reece Beekman, as well as freshman Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn, to form a deep and balanced rotation for head coach Tony Bennett. Virginia is allowing only 49.3 points per game, they’re shooting over 50% from the field, and they have an astounding 2.38 assist-to-turnover ratio. There’s no aspect of the game the Cavaliers are struggling with right now, and as long as everyone stays healthy, there’s no reason why they can’t keep posting spectacular results.
On the other hand, Michigan has disappointed so far this season. After blowing out Pitt 91-60, Juwan Howard’s group needed overtime to beat Ohio at home and got smoked by Arizona State 87-62. The loss to the Sun Devils was especially humiliating after Michigan star Hunter Dickinson was quoted on a podcast predicting,“Is Arizona State as good as Pitt? Here, we win by 20.” Despite the unfortunate podcast appearance, Dickinson has started the year as expected on the court, averaging 18 points and nine rebounds per game. In the three games since the victory over Pitt, however, only guard Jett Howard has joined Dickinson and reached double digit scoring more than one time. The 53rd ranked team in KenPom, a lot of questions surround this Michigan group as they try to figure out a winning formula around their All-American caliber big man.
The Pick: Virginia -4
This line is overcompensating for the location of this game. Virginia is ranked No. 3 for the reason and has succeeded on both ends against much stronger competition early on this year. The Cavaliers will win in Ann Arbor Tuesday Night and cover the number as well.
Score Prediction: Virginia 67, Michigan 59
We’ll be back tomorrow with the final six games of the challenge– the final games this year, and for the foreseeable future. It was announced early on Monday morning that this is the last Big 10-ACC challenge. The ACC will face-off against the SEC starting in 2023.
All odds via DraftKings.
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