Wake Forest vs Wisconsin: Preview and Prediction
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons travel to Madison Wisconsin to take on the Badgers in the 2022 ACC vs Big Ten Challenge.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Wisconsin -5.5
Moneyline: Wisconsin -230, Wake Forest +195
Over/under: 130.5
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 6-1
KenPom Ranking: 76th (65th Offensive, 94th Defensive)
Head coach Steve Forbes' team is coming off of back-to-back home blowouts over South Carolina State and Hampton. Sophomore guard Cameron Hildreth posted a triple-double on Saturday, and has been a big boost off the bench all season (11.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.9 apg). His production is even more crucial if the Deacs will once again be playing without Daivien Williamson. Forbes said after the Hampton game that Williamson "maybe could've went," but his status for Tuesday night is unclear.
Prior to the two game home stand, Wake Forest played in the Jersey Mike's Jamaica Classic, where they defeated La Salle but collapsed late in the loss vs Loyola Marymount.
Florida transfer Tyree Appleby has been a fantastic leader of the team this season, averaging 17.9 points, 5.6 assists and 2.0 steals per game on 50% shooting from the field, with a 41.3% clip from long range. Junior guard Damari Monsanto has hit a groove after scoring only six combined points in the first three games of the season. He's averaging 14.8 points per game over the last four on a scorching 17-32 (53%) from behind the arc.
Click the links below for our thoughts on previous games played of by the Deacs:
Takeaways from Wake Forest's 97-70 win over Hampton
Takeaways from Wake Forest's 77-75 loss to Loyola Marymount
Takeaways from Wake Forest's 75-63 win over La Salle
Wisconsin Team Overview:
Record: 5-1
KenPom Ranking: 38th (117th Offensive, 11th Defensive)
With their only loss coming against the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks in overtime, it's a surprise that Wisconsin isn't in the AP Top 25. The Badgers aren't looking for style points, which hurts the way they are perceived nationally. Head coach Greg Gard has his guys winning with impressive discipline on both ends of the floor. Wisconsin has beaten three solid opponents in typical fashion for them, defeating Stanford 60-50, Dayton 43-42 and USC 64-59.
The Badgers are led by senior Tyler Wahl, who is averaging 14 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this season. The 6’9” forward is an old school player who can score in a bunch of different ways around the basket. Wisconsin also relies heavily on point guard Chucky Hepburn. He's a tough on-ball defender, and he orchestrates a lot of what they do on the offensive end. He's averaging 9.7 points per game so far this season on a pretty poor 31.9% mark from the field, but his 17 points points last time out were huge in the win over USC. Freshman Connor Essegian was fantastic off the bench in the Battle 4 Atlantis, averaging 14.0 points per game and connecting on 9/17 attempts from deep.
Why Wake Forest will cover:
Wake Forest has looked their best this season when they have played fast and gotten out in transition, which is how you make Wisconsin uncomfortable. The Badgers aren't a team that is going break a game open, as they are 330th in the nation in effective field-goal percentage. Rebounding is a weakness for Wake, but Wisconsin doesn't crash the offensive glass that hard, as they rank 276th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game. The Deacs should be able to keep Wisconsin from scoring efficiently, so if they can get out in transition a bit and keep shooting the ball well from deep (24/47, 51% over the past two games), Wake Forest can not just cover on Tuesday night, but maybe even eke out a big time road win. If Appleby, Williamson, Monsanto and Carr combine to make double-digit threes - which is an extremely attainable possibility - that should be enough for this game to go down to the wire.
Why Wisconsin will cover:
They don't win sexy, but they win. Gard's group is so difficult to play against because they don't beat themselves. Wisconsin only turns the ball over 9.5 times per game, which is the 11th fewest in the country. Their ability to play through the post on the offensive end in a controlled manner, and the sharp nature of their passing and cutting is a tough style to face. That organization and connectivity can cause fits for the Deacs, who haven't faced an offensive opponent with as strong of an identity yet this season. Defensively, Hepburn can harass Appleby on the ball, and if Williamson doesn't play, it could force Hildreth and Ituka to do more than they are able to in a difficult road environment. Without a true isolation threat offensively, Wake Forest will struggle to score in a spot where it'll be very difficult to generate easy looks in transition.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 67, Wake Forest 63
This prediction is reliant on Williamson being ready to go, as his catch and shoot ability from deep would be a massive lift. I want to pick the Deacs to pull off the upset here, but I expect Wahl to be really tough guard down low. The Badgers, as they always seem to do, should do just enough to get the W. I can see Wake Forest struggling to adjust to their style of play, considering this group is still new to playing with each other, and this is assuredly the toughest opponent they have seen to date. I'll take the points with Wake because I'm confident that Forbes and the staff will be able to put their guys in good positions to score enough points to keep this game close.
The Pick: Wake Forest +5.5
*EDIT, changed my prediction before the game.
Season prediction record
3-4 ATS
6-1 Straight up
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