Analyzing the Wake Forest Men's Basketball 2022-23 Non-Conference Schedule
The date is December 27, 2021. Through a dozen games, Steve Forbes’ new-look Demon Deacons are 11-1. A jolt of hope strikes through a fanbase in desperate need of one.
The one loss had come on a neutral court vs #16 LSU. At the time, the Tigers boasted a perfect 12-0 record. But Wake Forest only received 4 votes in the AP top 25 that week. They hadn't beaten anyone noteworthy yet.
It’s clear at this point that the weak non-conference schedule that Wake played last season, combined with a “down” ACC (that still managed to send three teams to the Elite Eight), contributed to an NIT appearance instead of a triumphant return to The Big Dance.
I would like to point out, however, that the non-conference slate of opponents shouldn’t have been as weak as it ended up being.
Coming off a surprising run to the Elite Eight earlier in the year, Oregon State returned six of their top eight guys. They were expected to be good, and rightfully so . When Wake faced the Beavers on November 26th, the Deacs blew a 20-point second-half lead but held on to win 80-77 in overtime. A neutral court win that should’ve been on a March resumé ended up being a non-factor. Oregon State vastly underperformed last season, finishing with an abysmal 3-28 record.
Wake also secured a non-conference win vs Northwestern of the Big 10. That Wildcats team only lost one other game before conference play - to a Providence Friars squad that made the sweet 16. Northwestern went on to finish the season below .500 as well. These two wins could’ve been resumé boosters, yet by the end of the season, they had the exact opposite effect.
The rest of Wake’s non-conference victories came against low-quality mid-major teams. This included several dominant wins, but the Demon Deacons needed an Isaiah Mucius buzzer-beater to squeak past Charlotte, and a double-digit second-half comeback to beat VMI in the Joel. In the age of the NET rankings, KenPom, etc., it doesn't just matter if you win, but how you win. That's something within the team’s control no matter what the schedule looks like.
The 2022-23 non-conference schedule was announced earlier this month, and it's definitely a slight upgrade.
But will things be any different this year?
The Demon Deacons have four guaranteed Power 6 opponents, with an opportunity for a fifth if they cross paths with Georgetown in the Jersey Mike’s Jamaica Classic. This isn’t just a schedule - it’s a rooting guide for Deacon Nation. These teams (but most importantly the Power 6 ones), need to have strong seasons for these games to be quantified as quadrant 1 or 2 (wins or losses) come March.
Matt McMahon is the new coach at LSU, following a successful stretch at Murray State. In the age of NIL and transfers, a mass exodus of players ensued. There was zero roster retention so it’s hard to know what this team will look like. Wisconsin will likely take a sizable step backward from last year’s Johnny Davis-led squad. But facing the Badgers in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge instead of Northwestern is a huge step up. Georgia finally fired Tom Crean, but will likely remain in the SEC’s basement. The December 17th game at Rutgers is the only opponent Wake is facing that I am extremely confident will end up as a Quadrant 1 game. Rutgers lost their best player, but Head Coach Steve Pikiell returns a lot from a team that won six quad 1 games last season.
In terms of the mid-major opponents, Fairfield, LaSalle, South Carolina State, and Hampton should pose no serious threats. Nothing to gain, but lots to lose with a loss. Utah Valley and Appalachian State will be more challenging. App State made the Sun Belt Championship game last year, and although the Wolverines lost WAC player of the year Fardaws Aimaq (transferred to Texas Tech), almost everyone else returns to a squad coming off a 20-win season.
Wake is hosting five mid-majors at the Joel this year. Compared to seven buy games last year, this is an important step in the right direction.
But as evidenced by what happened last year, we won’t know until much later, how much gravity each win and loss will truly carry.
