Wake Forest at Syracuse: Preview and Prediction
Two struggling ACC squads square off Saturday night, with seeding implications for the ACC Tournament on the line.
Gameday Info
Location: JMA Wireless Dome - Syracuse, NY
Tipoff: 5 p.m. ET
TV: ACCNX
Spread: Wake Forest -1
Total: 157
Syracuse Team Overview:
Record: 16-14 (9-10)
KenPom: 127th (70th Offensive, 219th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 96-76 vs Georgia Tech, L 99-82 at Pitt, L 91-73 at Clemson
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Joe Girard III (16.7 ppg, 2.9 ast, 38.8 3P%)
Fr. G Judah Mintz (16.2 ppg, 4.5 ast, 1.8 stl)
Jr. C Jesse Edwards (14.1 ppg, 10.0 reb, 2.8 blk)
Syracuse enters the regular season finale on a four game losing streak. The smallest margin of defeat has been 17 poitns over this stretch. Jim Boeheim's group was playing pretty well from Dec. 3 - Feb. 14, but things have gone totally south.
Over their last four games, the Orange have allowed 61 made threes, which opponents have been making at a 42.7% clip. Syracuse was thoroughly dominated by Georgia Tech on Saturday, which forced Boeheim to ditch the zone and play man-to-man defense.
The 2-3 zone hadn't been great by any means leading up to this losing streak, but things were not this bad. Earlier in February, Syracuse looked like a team becoming more dangerous, beating Boston College and Florida State on the road, while upsetting NC State at home.
All season long, the Orange have relied on three players to generate the bulk of the offense. Four-year starter Joe Girard is a volume shooter who is the team's premiere threat from long range. He's drilled 294 three-pointers so far in his Syracuse career, and is connecting on 38.8% of his attempts this season.
Freshman Judah Mintz is a talented lead guard who is relentless attacking the basket. Mintz averaged 18.8 points per game during the month of February. InACC play, only Tyree Appleby has attempted more free throws.
Completing the big three is seven footer Jesse Edwards, who leads the conference in blocked shots. Edwards has scored 35 points and grabbed 15 rebounds in Syracuse's last two games.
In conference play, the Orange are third in the ACC in 3P% as a team (36.7%).
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 18-12 (10-9)
KenPom: 86th (38th Offensive, 163rd Defensive)
Recent Games: L 71-69 vs Boston College, W 66-58 vs Notre Dame, L 90-74 at NC State
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.7 ppg, 6.2 ast, 1.7 stl)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.3 ppg, 5.5 reb, 2.7 ast)
Jr. F Andrew Carr (11.1 ppg 5.8 reb, 1.0 blk)
Wake Forest enters Saturday coming off of their third home loss of the season. The Demon Deacons led by nine points early in the second half, before Boston College launched a 27-3 run to take control. Wake fought hard to tie the game with 20 seconds remaining, before Makai Ashton-Langford made a game winner in the final moments.
Steve Forbes' group was firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture, but they've gone 4-7 since mid-January.
Tyree Appleby has been playing at a very high level lately amidst the team's struggles, and continues to lead the ACC in points and assists. Over his last three contests, he's shooting 13-32 (40.6%) from downtown.
At the beginning of the second half in the loss to NC State on Feb. 22, Damari Monsanto injured his knee, ending his season. Monsanto was the team's second leading scorer, and he had established himself as arguably the best shooter in the ACC, so his absence has been a. massive blow to this group.
Additional responsibility to score is falling on Cam Hildreth and Andrew Carr, who haven't been great lately. Hildreth is 2-15 from the field in his last two games, while Carr has been held to single figures in four of his last seven.
One bright spot in the loss to the Eagles was Daivien Williamson having his best game in months. On his senior night, Williamson scored 20 points and knocked down three triples.
The story all season for this team has been the dichotomy between offense and defense. In ACC play, Wake is number two in the conference in effective field goal percentage (54.7%), but 12th in eFG% defense (53.2%).
Prediction:
Someone has to win between these two struggling teams...
I could see the Orange building off of the energy from their Senior Night and other festivities. The 2003 NCAA Championship team will be honored, and Gerry McNamara and Hakim Warrick will be getting their jerseys retired.
I will be completely shocked if Boeheim doesn't go back to the zone Saturday night, and even though everybody has been scoring against it, I'm not sure if the Deacs will find the same success.
Wake Forest isn't nearly as dangerous from behind the arc without Monsanto on the floor. Appleby will get his offensively, but it's important that Daivien Williamson, Bobi Klintman, and Andrew Carr knock down shots from the perimeter. Wake can't run its typical ball screen offense against the zone, and while every other ACC team as of late has been able to adapt to it, I could see it being more of a challenge for the Deacs.
All that being said, Syracuse has been a total disaster lately, so I see a big game from Appleby and a close Wake Forest win.
The Pick: Wake Forest -1
Final Score Prediction: Wake Forest 75 Syracuse 73
Season prediction record
17-13 ATS
22-8 Straight up
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