Wake Forest vs Syracuse: ACC Tournament Preview and Prediction
Game No. 4 in the ACC Tournament is a matchup between the No. 9 seed Wake Forest and No. 8 Syracuse. These teams just squared off a few days ago in Syracuse, and the Orange secured a comfortable 72-63 win.
Gameday Info
Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro NC
Tipoff: 12 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5
Total: 153.5
Syracuse Team Overview:
Record: 17-14 (10-10)
KenPom: 119th (79th Offensive, 195th Defensive)
Recent Games: W 72-63 vs Wake Forest, L 96-76 vs Georgia Tech, L 99-82 at Pitt,
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Joe Girard III (16.7 ppg, 2.9 ast, 38.1 3P%)
Fr. G Judah Mintz (16.2 ppg, 4.5 ast, 1.9 stl)
Jr. C Jesse Edwards (14.5 ppg, 10.0 reb, 2.8 blk)
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 18-13 (10-10)
KenPom: 91st (51st Offensive, 153rd Defensive)
Recent Games: L 72-63 at Syracuse L 71-69 vs Boston College, W 66-58 vs Notre Dame
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.8 ppg, 6.3 ast, 1.7 stl)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.1 ppg, 5.5 reb, 2.7 ast)
Jr. F Andrew Carr (10.9 ppg 5.8 reb, 0.9 blk)
Why Syracuse will win:
Syracuse had gotten blown out in four straight games before taking care of business in the regular season finale over the Demon Deacons. Teams had been picking apart the zone lately, but the Orange put forth a much better effort in the win on Saturday.
Jim Boeheim's group is a matchup problem for multiple reasons for Wake Forest. Jesse Edwards was dominant with 27 points and 12 rebounds in the win. None of the bigs on Wake Forest could slow down at all, and the Third Team All-ACC selection got plenty of great looks around the basket. I'm expecting another big game out of him on Wednesday afternoon.
Judah Mintz and Joe Girard added 17 and 16 apiece respectively last time out, and they should find success again vs the Wake's undersized and offensive-minded backcourt.
It's tough to beat a team twice in a row, and yes, this matchup is on a neutral court, but Wake struggled to guard those three players, and from a personnel standpoint Syracuse has the upper hand here. Plus, Boeheim has won five straight opening round matchups in the ACC Tournament.
Andrew Carr isn't healthy, Tyree Appleby is shouldering an incredible amount of responsibility, and Cam Hildreth has been ice cold lately. Wake Forest will need to play close to their best to win this contest, while Syracuse has much more wiggle room considering they have three guys that can lead the team in scoring.
Why Wake Forest will win:
Steve Forbes and his staff have had three full days to prepare for a team that just beat them. That definitely inspires confidence in me that the Deacs will be ready to play Wednesday afternoon.
However, with Damari Monsanto sidelined, Wake is lacking their premiere threat from distance. He would be quite helpful to have around against the team that does a very poor job of defending the three-point line. Tyree Appleby has taken 10+ threes in every game since Monsanto has gotten hurt, because the team has been lacking offensively lately and needed him to create for himself and let it fly whenever he's been open. He scored 21 points and dished out eight assists on Saturday, connecting on 5-14 from deep but turning the ball over seven times.
Wake shot 10-39 (25.6%) and turned the ball over 16 times in the loss on Saturday. With a few days of rest and this game being played on a neutral court, it's valid to assume both of those statistics will improve.
There are a couple of keys for Wake Forest to play better today. One of which is to get Edwards into foul trouble, because Syracuse is a much worse team without him on the court. If he's not in foul trouble, Carr, Matthew Marsh, and Zach Keller will need to do a much better job keeping him off of the offensive glass.
Another is getting scoring production outside of Appleby, especially from beyond the arc. Daivien Williamson, Bobi Klintman, and Lucas Taylor are all going to need to shoot the ball well for Wake to have a good chance.
If those guys step up, there's plenty of reason to believe Appleby can carry this group to a win over a team that has had one strong performance in the past four weeks.
Prediction:
Will things be much different this time around?
At the end of the day, you need playmakers to win games in March. While Wake Forest will have the best player on the floor in this one, the next three best guys are all on Syracuse. The Deacs haven't been nearly as good without Monsanto, and to be frank I'm not sure this team has enough going on to beat anybody in the ACC right now outside of Louisville on a neutral floor.
After how the ACC Tournament went last year, and with three days to prepare for this one, I imagine Forbes will get his crew to bring their best effort. Yet, I'm still struggling to understand how Wake is favored by three points. Appleby will need to be absolutely brilliant, and offensively multiple other guys are going to need to play much better than they have been for Wake to have a chance. The Deacons haven't scored over 70 in a game since Monsanto went down, and I'm not confident that that changes Wednesday afternoon.
While Syracuse has been the inferior team this season, I still think that with his big three that Boeheim can be dangerous in this tournament. Maybe Appleby is good enough to carry this team to a win in Greensboro, but I really do lack confidence in the supporting cast right now.
Meanwhile, while the Orange don't have much going on outside of Mintz/Girard/Edwards, that's all they really need to win this game. Mintz and Girard should once again have no issues generating looks for themselves vs Appleby/Williamson, and Edwards will be licking his chops again after he just dominated these bigs. Defensively, I see Wake really struggling to limit those three.
Wake will find enough offense in the first half to be right in it, but I expect Syracuse to string together a run after halftime and win by multiple possessions.
The Pick: Syracuse +3.5
Final Score Prediction: Syracuse 77 Wake Forest 69
Season prediction record
17-14 ATS
22-9 Straight up
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