Duke vs Miami: Preview and Prediction
The No. 17 Miami Hurricanes travel to Cameron Indoor to take on the Duke Blue Devils. Mami made a big statement last January when they beat Duke 76-74 as 15.5 point underdogs.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Duke -5.5
Moneyline: Duke -225, Miami +185
Total: 148
Miami Team Overview
Record: 15-3 (6-2)
KenPom Ranking: 43rd (10th Offense, 142nd Defense)
Recent Games: W 82-78 vs Syracuse, L 83-81 OT at NC State, W 88-72 vs Boston College
Leading Scorers:
Jr. G Isaiah Wong (16.7 ppg, 4.5 reb, 3.8 ast, 1.6 stl)
Sr. G Jordan Miller (14.8 ppg, 5.7 reb, 1.3 stl)
So. F Norchiad Omier (14.0 ppg, 10.2 reb, 61.6 FG%)
Despite dropping two of their last four conference matchups, Miami remains in a four way tie for second place in the ACC. After dropping a heartbreaker to NC State in overtime last weekend, the Hurricanes bounced back by overcoming an 11-point second half deficit at home to defeat the Orange on Tuesday. The win allowed them to stay undefeated in eleven games at the Watsco Center.
Miami went on a 12-3 run in the last five minutes to close out the victory. A 16 point 16 rebound double-double performance from one of the ACC’s most underrated big men in Norchad Omier pushed Miami over the top. Additionally, junior guard Harlond Beverly dropped a season-high 16 points off the bench.
It’s no secret Isaiah Wong is the face of this squad; he ranks just outside the top five in the ACC with 16.7 points per game. However, wins like this prove that his supporting cast can get it done as well, which is vital as the season progresses into the later months. Jordan Miller has been quite reliable as a secondary option on the perimeter this season, but the explosiveness subsists in Nijel Pack. Pack drilled five threes against Syracuse, and has now hit multiple triples in five straight games.
These supporting players continue to contribute as teams focus on slowing down Wong. The Hurricanes boast the best field goal percentage in the conference at 48.1% and KenPom ranks them No. 1 in the ACC in adjusted offensive efficiency. However, their team defense leaves much to be desired due to their lack of size and reliance on forcing turnovers. But if they continue to stay balanced on the offensive end, this team will remain a very tough one to beat.
Duke Team Overview
Record: 13-5 (4-3)
KenPom Ranking: 29th (42nd Offense, 33rd Defense)
Recent Games: L 72-64 at Clemson, W 77-69 vs Pittsburgh, W 65-64 at Boston College
Leading Scorers:
Fr. C Kyle Filipowski (14.9 ppg, 9.2 reb, 1.2 stl)
Jr. G Jeremy Roach (11.9 ppg, 3.2 ast, 1.1 stl)
Fr. F Mark Mitchell (9.7 ppg, 50 FG%, 41.4 3PT%)
The Blue Devils have not met expectations so far in head coach Jon Scheyer's rookie season, but they still find themselves in ACC contention and with an undefeated record in Cameron Indoor. However, they were a rebound away at Boston College from posting zero wins in four attempts in away stadiums in conference.
Their struggles away from home were highlighted in last weekend’s 72-64 defeat at Clemson. Duke trailed by only one with less than four minutes remaining, but were killed by crippling turnovers by starting freshmen Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor. Proctor, who totaled a career high in minutes (37) and points (17) in the loss, has seen an increased role as a result of veteran guard Jeremy Roach’s toe injury. Roach has missed the last three games, and is a game time decision for this one.
While Mitchell and Proctor have chipped in with Roach’s absence, freshman star Kyle Filipowski continues to bear a significant amount of the load offensively. He attempted a career high 22 shots in the defeat, and only made eight of them. If the Blue Devils have any intentions of rejoining the AP Top 25, Scheyer needs to find ways to take pressure off of Filipowski and get talented youngsters like Dariq Whitehead (2 points vs Clemson) more involved.
While the ugliness on the offensive end attracts most of the attention for Duke, they are one of the conference’s best on the defensive end. They are ranked No. 2 in the ACC in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom.
They have a serious bench asset in freshman center Dereck Lively II, who ranks second in the conference in blocks (1.8) despite playing a mere 16 minutes per game. His lack of offensive production given his recruiting pedigree remains perplexing. Lively hasn't scored in double figures since the end of November.
Prediction:
You can’t beat a marquee matchup on a Saturday in Cameron Indoor. This matchup represents a massive opportunity for the Blue Devils to rejoin the race for an ACC title with a win over one of the conference’s best at home. However, the Hurricanes will look to win in Cameron in for the second straight season as they continue to chase down Clemson for the ACC lead.
While they have looked very impressive to start the season, I see Miami coming up short here. Confidence will be high after a comeback win without Wong’s best performance, but I doubt the Hurricanes can pull off a similar victory against this physical Duke defense.
Last year in this matchup, Miami won the turnover battle 17-5. With or without Roach. if Duke can do a better job taking care of the ball Saturday afternoon, their advantage on the glass and on the interior should be enough to take care of business. I see this one slipping away from Miami, and one of the most intimidating atmospheres in college basketball fueling the Blue Devils to a win and a cover.
The Pick: Duke -5.5
Score Prediction: Duke 74 Miami 61
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