NC State vs Miami: Preview and Prediction
The No. 16 Miami Hurricanes visit the streaking Wolfpack on on Saturday afternoon.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: Noon ET
TV: ACCNX, ESPN+
Spread: NC State -3
Total: 155
Miami Team Overview:
Record: 14-2 (5-1)
KenPom Ranking: 41st (12th Offense, 122nd Defense)
Recent Games: W 88-72 vs Boston College, L 76-70 at Georgia Tech, W 76-65 at Notre Dame
Leading Scorers:
Jr. G Isaiah Wong (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.8 spg)
Sr. G Jordan Miller (15.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.4 spg)
So. F Norchiad Omier (13.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 61.4 FG%)
The Hurricanes have looked like one of the better teams in the nation throughout the beginning of this young season thanks to an impressive 5-1 ACC record. This success was highlighted by a one possession home win over then No. 6 Virginia, but slowed recently with a discouraging road loss to Georgia Tech (1-5 ACC).
Jim Larrañaga's team is continuing to play the beautiful brand of basketball that got them to the Elite Eight last year. Miami is excellent at forcing turnovers and turning defense into offense. They achieve this by actively filling their opponents’ passing lanes, which leads to several high percentage looks in transition throughout the course of their games. Three of their starters rank top 15 in the ACC in steals. The Hurricanes also boast the highest team field goal percentage in conference as they shoot at a 48% clip.
Fourth-year guard Isaiah Wong is the leader of this squad. His development into one of the ACC’s best all-around guards garners serious defensive attention from any opponent, which allows for his teammates to thrive with less coverage. His senior wingman, Jordan Miller, boasts the second best shooting percentage among ACC guards at a 52.6% mark. Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier is a monster on the glass, and his 61.4% mark from the field leads the conference.
Accordingly, this team goes as far as Wong does. In the shocking loss to Georgia Tech, the junior guard scored only six points on 1-11 shooting. However, he bounced back with a 22 point performance in the win on Wednesday, which moved him into 10th all time on Miami’s all-time scoring list.
North Carolina State Team Preview:
Record: 13-4 (3-3)
KenPom Ranking: 35th (35th Offense, 50th Defense)
Recent Games: W 73-69 at Virginia Tech, W 84-60 vs Duke, L 78-64 at Clemson
Leading Scorers:
So. G Terquavion Smith (18.6 ppg, 4.8 apg, 1.9 spg)
Sr. G Jarkel Joiner (16.3 ppg, 45.2 FG%, 1.2 spg)
Sr. G Casey Morsell (13.2 ppg, 50 FG%, 46.3 3PT%)
NC State is one of the scariest teams to play in the ACC at the moment. They are coming off two resounding quadrant one victories: a tight win over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, and a double-digit demolition of the Blue Devils.
Their success comes from similar metrics to the Hurricanes, as they lead the ACC in steals per game (8.9) and average turnover margin (+4.0). Despite placing in the bottom half of the conference in field goal percentage, NC State averages 79.4 points per game, which is good for second in the ACC. Head coach Kevin Keatts wants his guys to play fast and get up a ton of shots. He's got plenty of faith in his talented guards to make enough to win games.
At the forefront of this scoring outlook is breakout sophomore guard Terquavion Smith, who leads the ACC in scoring with 18.6 points per game. He is the epitome of their offensive approach, as he leads the team with a ridiculous 272 field goals attempted this year while shooting at a sub 40 mark. However, Smith’s backcourt companion, Jarkel Joiner has been a huge part of the team's success as well. Joiner scored 21 in both of NC State’s last two wins while shooting 42.8% from deep, The senior guard is beginning to prove that teams can't just lock in on Smith defensively.
The Pick: North Carolina State -3
This matchup should be incredibly fun to watch; both teams sport dynamic backcourts that play with high energy on both ends. The Wolfpack couldn’t look any better going into a home showdown with one of the conference’s best, where they’ve only lost once this year. On the other hand, Miami is likely looking to re-establish the rhythm that saw them have so much early season success with a statement win here. If NC State is legit, this is their moment to prove it.
Without a doubt, this matchup needs to come down to which backcourts will shine more. When these two matched up in Coral Gables earlier this year, Smith and Joiner combined for 45 points on 51.5% shooting. Wong and Miller matched them to the tune of 47 points on 57.1% shooting. However, these are different teams then they were a month ago. The Wolfpack have seriously improved defensively, boasting a top 50 defensive metric according to KenPom that showed in their domination against Duke.
I trust Smith and Joiner to repeat their performances from the first matchup at home while making more of an effort to deny the Hurricanes’ guards clean looks. Despite huge wins in recent weeks, I think the Wolfpack still have something to prove, and expect them to outgun Miami in another impressive victory.
Score Prediction: NC State 82, Miami 73
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