North Carolina vs Michigan: Preview and Prediction
The North Carolina Tar Heels face off against the Michigan Wolverines this Wednesday as the inaugural Jumpman Invitational rolls on.
READ: Takeaways from Wake Forest's 81-70 win over Duke
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 7 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: North Carolina -4.5
Total: 153.5
Michigan Team Preview:
Record: 7-3
KenPom Ranking: 48th (24th Off, 91st Def)
The Wolverines have experienced a slow start to the year that has seen them go winless against three currently ranked teams (No. 25 Arizona State, No. 6 Virginia, No. 19 Kentucky). However, they have gotten back on track with consecutive wins against Minnesota and Lipscomb in the last few weeks. Second-year guard Kobe Bufkin (11.4 ppg) posted 37 total points on an impressive 75% from the field and 83% from deep in these victories. Junior center Hunter Dickinson, a preseason all-Big Ten selection, leads Michigan in scoring for the third straight season with 19.1 ppg, but also places top three in the conference in rebounds per game (8.4) and blocks per game (2.0).
Despite a discouraging start, the Wolverines have shown an ability to hang with the nation’s powerhouses, holding second-half leads against both Virginia and Kentucky. They play particularly clean basketball, ranking top five nationally with 9.3 turnovers per contest while only committing around 15 fouls per game. If they can slow down the high-flying Tar Heels and Bufkin can go shot for shot with Caleb Love or RJ Davis, Michigan has a good chance of picking up that marquee win they have been so desperately searching for.
READ: Wake Forest downs No. 14 Duke behind balanced team effort
North Carolina Team Preview:
Record: 8-4
KenPom Ranking: 20th (10th Off, 57th Def)
North Carolina is obviously disappointed with its start to the season, falling from the top ranking in the preseason AP Poll to unranked with four consecutive Q1 defeats (Iowa State, Alabama, Indiana, Virginia Tech). In similar fashion to the Wolverines, the Tar Heels have bounced back with three straight victories, none bigger than a 89-84 overtime victory last Saturday over then No. 23 Ohio State. Their return to form is thanks to veteran fourth-year center Armando Bacot, who posted 28 points and 15 rebounds in the victory. Even so, the highlight of this team is still 2022 March Madness darling Caleb Love, who leads the ACC with 18.3 ppg despite shooting a lackluster 29.1% from deep.
The Tar Heels’ primary strength is the dynamic offense led by Bacot and Love that averages an impressive 81.6 ppg. They achieve this by going to the line at the highest rate among eligible Power Five teams with an astonishing 26.3 free throws attempted per game. This makes them a desirable matchup for the foul-averse Wolverines who can easily stifle Bacot (8.3 free throw attempts per game) with Dickinson. In order to substantiate their winning streak with another impactful Big Ten victory, North Carolina will have to outgun a slightly disadvantaged Michigan offense missing senior guard Jaelin Llewellyn.
The Pick: North Carolina -4.5
In their only matchup in December of last season, North Carolina handled Michigan 72-51 in the final installment of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. The main story of that matchup will take place again in this one — all eyes will be on Hunter Dickinson versus Armando Bacot in the low post. Bacot held Dickinson to four points in the win last year and figures to be equally up to the task in this one. While Bufkin has looked encouraging for the Wolverines as of late, I don’t see him being able to keep up with the talented Tar Heel backcourt with Dickinson facing such a tough matchup in Bacot. Give me North Carolina to cover.
Final Score Prediction: UNC 79, Michigan 71
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