Notre Dame vs Marquette Prediction: ACC Basketball Pick of the Day
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Marquette -1
Total: 146.5
Marquette Team Overview:
Record: 7-3
Kenpom Ranking: 38th (30th in Offensive efficiency, 68th in Defensive)
Marquette secured a marquee win at home in a 26 point obliteration over one of the best teams in the nation, No. 12 Baylor. However, they’ve lost to every other decent team they’ve played this year, albeit by five points or less in each matchup (75-70 L at Purdue, 58-55 L vs Mississippi State, 80-77 L vs Wisconsin).
Year one of the Shaka Smart era went quite well with a surprise trip to the NCAA tournament as a 9 seed. Although they lost 3 of their top 5 in minutes played last year, including their top two scorers, this team is just as strong with returnees Kam Jones and Olivier-Maxence Prosper leading the team in scoring, both averaging over 15 points per game.
Marquette is a team that tries to muck up the game and make it tough. They contest everything defensively and rely on Jones and Prosper offensively, with point guard Tyler Kolek orchestrating (8 assists per game). Kolek is a fantastic decision maker in the pick and roll, and his ability to distribute or score after that is this team's go-to offense.
Notre Dame Team Overview:
Record: 7-2 (0-1)
Kenpom Ranking: 80th (29th in Off., 174 in Def.)
Notre Dame has had one of the easiest schedules in the nation and yet far too many of their games have been close. They have one possession wins over Radford and Lipscomb, and losses to St. Bonaventure and Syracuse. Their one saving grace is that they beat Michigan State by 18 at home. This team can be pretty hit or miss because of how many threes they take and how weak they are on the defensive end.
Mike Brey has been at Notre Dame for ages. After four consecutive years of not making the tournament, Brey put together a solid roster and made the Round of 32 after being a First Four team. Their success last year relied on star freshman Blake Wesley’s playmaking and driving ability, combined with their outside shooting.
This year, Brey brought in 5-star freshman JJ Starling to replace Wesley, who is now a San Antonio Spur. However, this team has struggled early on because Starling hasn’t been the defender or playmaker that Wesley was for this team. Seniors Dane Goodwin, Nate Laszewski, Trey Wertz, and Cormac Ryan have all played well this year, but this team has no depth and needs one of its freshmen to step up. Notre Dame wins this game if they can knock down 3s and keep Marquette from running in transition.
The Pick: Notre Dame +1
This Notre Dame team plays up and down to its opponents. Teams like Radford, Youngstown State and Southern Indiana scored over 70 against the Irish in South Bend, but Michigan State only found 52. They’re about as skilled as any team in the nation, but they struggle on defense because of their lack of length and athleticism. Luckily, Marquette isn't a team with overwhelming size or NBA athletes. The Eagles have a high offensive ceiling, but I see them struggling more than expected in a road environment today to score very effectively. An experienced, disciplined team like Notre Dame will come out with something to prove after losing to Syracuse. The Fighting Irish take care of the ball (8.8 turnovers per game), so if they can control the pace and find their flow offensively, they should be able to get enough stops to escape with a win. Brey will have his guys fired up and ready to play after a devastating one-point loss to Syracuse.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 78 Marquette 72
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