Syracuse vs North Carolina: Preview and Prediction
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 9:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: North Carolina -4.5
Moneyline: North Carolina -196, Syracuse +164
Total: 150
North Carolina Team Preview
Record: 14-6 (6-3)
KenPom Ranking: 24th (16th Offense, 59th Defense)
Recent Games: 80-69 W vs NC State, 72-64 W vs Boston College, 80-59 W at Louisville
Leading Scorers:
Sr. F Armando Bacot (17.8 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 1.1 bpg)
Jr. G RJ Davis (16.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.2 apg)
Jr. G Caleb Love (16.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.0 apg)
This North Carolina team has been rolling in conference play, winning five of their last six games. The Tar Heels are still unranked after being the preseason No. 1, but are still a legitimate threat to make a run in March. Star big man Armando Bacot has been playing like the ACC Player of the Year, and is coming off of a 23-point, 18-rebound performance in a massive win against in-state rival NC State on Saturday.
READ: Three ACC teams ranked in AP men's college basketball poll, Wake Forest earns first vote
Offensively, this team goes through Bacot — he boasts a 27.9% usage rate, fifth-highest in the ACC. Bacot is one of the most efficient players in the country, holding the top field goal percentage in the ACC among players who average at least 10 shot attempts per game. He also draws a lot of contact and averages more free throw attempts than any other player in the ACC.
The main story this season for the Heels has been Caleb Love’s dropoff in three-point shooting. A year ago, Love shot 36% from three-point range and was thought to be one of the best shotmaking guards in the country. This year, he’s only shooting 26.8% from downtown, polarizing Tar Heels fans with his shot selection in the process. If he is knocking shots down from the perimeter, this team is going to be hard to beat, but that hasn’t been the case at all recently.
Defensively, North Carolina has struggled somewhat this season but have picked it up recently. They are averaging 6.7 steals per game in their three-game win streak, and have moved up from 10th to 7th in the ACC in steals per game in that span.
Syracuse Team Preview
Record: 13-7 (6-3)
KenPom Ranking: 81st (56th Offense, 126th Defense)
Recent Games: 80-63 W at Georgia Tech, 82-78 L at Miami (FL), 78-73 W vs Notre Dame
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Joseph Girard III (17.5 ppg, 3.3 apg, 38.2% 3P)
Fr. G Judah Mintz (14.9 ppg, 4.5 apg, 2.0 spg)
Sr. C Jesse Edwards (13.9 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 2.8 bpg)
After some shaky non-conference performances, including losses to Bryant and Colgate at home, Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse squad has bounced back with a surprising 6-3 record in the ACC so far. Although, it should be noted that they’ve lost all three of their most challenging games to this point (vs Pitt, at Virginia, at Miami). Jim Boeheim is asking a lot of his young talent early on — four of his top seven rotation players by minutes played are freshmen.
Offensively, the team’s success is correlated to Joseph Girard’s perimeter shooting. In losses this year, he is shooting 28% from three-point range, whereas he shoots 42.2% from deep in wins. Girard has been shooting it at a high clip recently, evidenced by his dominant 28-point performance against Georgia Tech on Saturday.
Scoring for this Syracuse team is incredibly condensed to its top three players (Girard III, Mintz, and Edwards), who score 61.2% of the team’s points. Mintz has the ball in his hands a lot and averages 4.5 assists per game, while Jesse Edwards uses his height and length to score on the interior.
Defensively, the patented 2-3 zone has been solid in conference play. Girard is a notoriously bad defender at the top of the key — it’s difficult to be disruptive standing 6’1” with his lack of length. Evan Miya’s player ratings give four of the five starters (Girard, Mintz, Chris Bell, Benny Williams) mediocre to bad individual defensive ratings.
Freshman Maliq Brown has seen a significant uptick in minutes lately, and is coming off of a season-high 18 points. He’s also a strong defender at the bottom of the zone. The anchor of the zone is Edwards, leading the ACC in blocks with 2.8 rejections per contest.
Prediction:
Syracuse has beaten one team this year inside the KenPom top 100 — No. 46 Virginia Tech. North Carolina is playing quality ball right now, so I’m willing to lay the points here. Caleb Love and RJ Davis will get plenty of clean looks from behind the arc in this one, and I see this as a get-right spot for Love. Davis is a quality defender who can play Girard tightly. While exceptionally talented, Judah Mintz’s youth has flashed at times (just three points against Miami on 1/16). Jesse Edwards can bother Bacot with his size, but may struggle to stay out of foul trouble, which completely changes the complexion of this game. North Carolina is a top-25 caliber team, and I think their confidence and swagger are as high as they’ve been all season after the win against NC State. The Carrier Dome will be rocking, but I’m backing this Carolina team, who I expect to flourish offensively against the zone.
The Pick: North Carolina -4.5
Final Score Prediction: North Carolina 79, Syracuse 70
2022-23 ATS Record: 5-3
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