Virginia at Miami: ACC Pick of the Day
In the first ranked ACC matchup of the season, the No. 6 Virginia Cavaliers take on the No. 22 Miami Hurricanes.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 8:30 PM ET
TV: ACC Network
Spread: Virginia -2
Total: 134.5
READ: ACC Basketball Power Rankings
Miami Team Preview
Record: 11-1
KenPom Ranking: 48th (12th Off, 123rd Def)
The Hurricanes are off to a hot start this year, and are in the AP Poll for the second straight week. They have multiple quality wins this year over Providence, UCF, Rutgers, and NC State. Their sole loss comes in an 88-70 thrashing on a neutral floor against Maryland, a team that Miami had no answers for on the defensive end. The team is led by dynamic scorers junior Isaiah Wong (16.7 ppg) and senior Jordan Miller (15.1 ppg), the two returning starters from last year's Elite Eight run. Undersized but effective big man 6-7 Norchad Omier (13.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg) has been a fantastic addition in the transfer portal from Arkansas State. Kansas State transfer Nijel Pack hasn't been great this year (11.3 ppg, 3.0 apg, 39.7 FG%) but is a talented guard with a ton of scoring pop. He missed last game with an illness, but he should be good to go Tuesday night.
Miami boasts an explosive offense that is scoring 79.0 points per game, good for third in the ACC. This Miami offense is not one that blows you away with 3 point shooting (34.0%), but they’re offensive rebounding is dominant (34.0 off. reb %) and they don't turn the ball over (16.7%, 54th ranked TO%). They also are quite efficient shooting inside the arc (57.0% on 2 point FGs this season). Their four guard look with Pack, Joseph, Wong, and Miller spreads teams out and allows Omier to go to work in the paint. However, they play quiet negligible defense, evidenced by their low KenPom ranking, and the ridiculous 105 points they gave up in regulation at home vs Cornell (they still won, 107-105).
Defensively, due to Omier’s lack of size, they are prone to getting dominated by opposing big men. In their sole loss this season, Miami allowed a combined 41 points and 15 rebounds from Maryland big men Julian Reese and Donta Scott dropped. Additionally, their perimeter defense is fairly weak, as three of their starters have negative defensive ratings (Wong, Pack, Miller) on EvanMiya. They have one of the weakest defenses among ranked teams, which they try to make up for by forcing turnovers at a high rate. They do force teams into 14.3 turnovers per game, second best in the ACC.
An X-factor in this game will be how well Miami’s guards can hold up on the defensive end against Virginia’s. Reece Beekman, Kihei Clark, and Armaan Franklin are all efficient scorers, but they all play within Tony Bennett's system and don't necessarily create for themselves. It will be key for Miami to play connected defensively to force Virginia into as many contested looks as possible. Another interesting matchup will be the mismatches of styles at the four spot between Miller, who's essentially a guard, and Virginia's Jayden Gardner, who's also 6-6 but weighs 40 more pounds.
Virginia Team Preview
Record: 8-1
KenPom Ranking: 11th (11th Off, 27th Def)
After a hot start to the year that brought Virginia all they way up to No. 2 in the AP Poll, the Cavaliers were humbled by Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars on Saturday. Houston came into Charlottesville and emerged victorious in a convincing 69-61 win.
Virginia has a balanced attack, with five guys averaging between 9.3-11.8 points per game. Those are the five starters, in Gardner, Clark, Franklin, Beekman, and Kadin Shedrick. Ohio transfer Ben Vander Plas. (6.8 ppg) and freshman Isaac McKneely (4.9 ppg) are knockdown shooters and quality defenders that are nice pieces off the bench..
In the Houston game, the Cavaliers defended Marcus Sasser quite well, which isn’t shocking given Beekman and Franklin’s quality defensive metrics. The primary issue was guarding Houston forward Jarace Walker down low, who used his athleticism to score on the interior. UVA’s pack line defense aims to suffocate teams when they penetrate inside the arc, and that has shown to be true with their 43.8 opposing two point field goal % (31st best in the nation).
An X-factor for UVA will be if Shedrick can user his size to wall up and make things difficult for Omier in the paint. The 6-11 big has about four inches on him, and is a quality defender, evidenced by his 1.9 blocks per game and quality defensive metrics. If Shedrick can keep Omier off the offensive glass and stay out of foul trouble, I like UVA’s chances in this one.
The Pick: Virginia -2
Virginia is a veteran group who won't be rattled to play in their first ACC road game of the season. I believe Virginia’s pack line defense is perfectly suited to play this Miami team that thrives on creating ball movement off of dribble penetration. Virginia is so connected defensively that they can do a much better job stopping the Hurricanes attack than most of their opponents. Virginia went 2-0 against Miami last year, so this is a revenge spot for the Hurricanes, but stylistically it's a bad matchup for them. Miami is undersized in almost every game, and they make their living on the defensive end by forcing turnovers. But Tony Bennett's guys are so disciplined that it's quite the challenge to speed them up. I could see Gardner struggling to hang with Jordan Miller on the perimeter, but I think Bennett will play Vander Plas more minutes to adjust to that. Miami isn’t exactly known to have one of the more raucous crowds in the nation either, so the home court advantage won't be a big factor. I think Virginia is able to find a groove offensively against this weak defense, and do enough defensively to slow down Wong and co. Lay the two points with the Cavaliers, who will win by multiple possessions.
Final Score Prediction: Virginia 76, Miami 67
Season ATS Record: 2-1
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