Virginia Tech vs NC State: Preview and Prediction - ACC Basketball Pick of the Day
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ACC Network Extra
Spread: +5.5
Total: 143.5
NC State Team Overview
Record: 12-4 (2-3)
KenPom Ranking: 44th (36th Offense, 60th Defense)
Recent Games: 84-60 W vs Duke, 78-64 L at Clemson, 76-64 W vs Louisville
Leading Scorers:
So. G Terquavion Smith (18.4 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.9 spg)
Sr. G Jarkel Joiner (16 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg)
Sr. G Casey Morsell (13.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 45.7% 3P)
Coming off of a dominant home win against Duke, this NC State team is full of confidence and hoping get to get their conference record up to .500. Terquavion Smith showed why he’s one of the best guards in the ACC and a potential first round pick with 24 points, while his backcourt mate Jarkel Joiner had 21 and 9 assists. However, the Wolfpack can’t ride too high as they head to Blacksburg to face a tough Virginia Tech team.
Offensively, this team is led by the three-headed monster of guards Terquavion Smith, Jarkel Joiner, and Casey Morsell). Smith and Joiner are the primary ball-handlers and run the offense, while Morsell is the sharpshooter, leading the ACC in three point percentage (45.7%). This team maximizes possessions by not turning the ball over (10th best TO % in the nation) and not getting their shots blocked (17th best opposing block percentage).
Key players Jack Clark and Dusan Mahorcic are both out indefinitely, and those injuries tamper this team's capabilities. This team has sturggled on the defensive end this season, but head coach might have found something in the Duke game by inserting Providence transfer Greg Gantt and 6 '11 shot blocker Ebenezer Dowuona into the starting lineup at the four and five spots. Both players are more defensive minded, which helps balance the aggressive scoring approach from the backcourt. Big man DJ Burns was thought to be the answer when Mahorcic went down, but now fits in nicely as a 6th man, due to his offensive pop, but weak defensive abilities. Analytically, this team’s best attribute is their ability to control the boards, ranking 4th in the ACC in rebound margin. Clark and Mahorcic were two of the team's best rebounders, but Gantt and Dowuona have the strength and athleticism to continue the team's same success on the glass.
This team is 0-2 in its only true road games of the season, missing opportunities for Q1 wins blowing a lead at Miami, and being controlled by Clemson. Duke has been weak on the road this season so that win could end up saying more about the Blue Devils than the Wolfpack. This is a big spot for NC State to avoid dropping to 2-4 in the conference.
Virginia Tech Team Overview
Record: 11-4 (1-3)
KenPom Ranking: 35th (31st Offense, 52nd Defense)
Recent Games: 68-65 L vs Clemson, 77-75 L at Wake Forest, 70-65 (OT) L at Boston College
Leading Scorers:
So. G Sean Pedulla (17.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.3 apg)
Sr. F Grant Basile (13.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 bpg)
Sr. F Justyn Mutts (13.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.6 spg)
Spiraling on a three game losing streak, this Virginia Tech team is in desperate need of a win. Hunter Catoor was injured in the second half of the BC game, and since then the Hokies have dropped three close ones. He's a game time decision for this one, but it seems likely that he will play. The Hokies have tried to go big by starting C Lynn Kidd the past two games, but it's stunted the team's offensive flow a bit. Cattoor is one of the best shooters in the ACC, so his return will be massive, as head coach Mike Young will be able to get back to his old rotation.
Offensively, this team is incredibly efficient, as they don't turn the ball over (14.6 TO %, 9th in the nation). Across the three game losing streak, that level of taking care of the basketball has not continued for the Hokies, as they lost the turnover battle by 6 in losses to Boston College and Wake Forest. The Hokies shoot efficiently from inside the arc (52nd in two point % nationally), which can be largely attributed to big men Justyn Mutts and Grant Basile. Mike Young’s group is better on the offensive end, but they do a good job on defense of not fouling (22nd best opposing free throw rate), and forcing tough shots inside the arc (45.7% opposing two point percentage, 53rd nationally).
The X-Factor with the Hokies will be how well they can contain NC State’s guards. Pedulla, Cattoor, and Darius Maddox will be tasked with guarding the Wolfpack perimeter, and I’m skeptical of their ability to contain these three players. Wake’s Tyree Appleby went for 24 points and Boston College’s Makai Ashton-Langford went for 21 against them. The Hokies have struggled containing quick and explosive guards recently. Making things difficult for Smith and the rest of the Wolfpack guards will be the key.
The Pick: NC State +5.5
While I was initially inclined to pick Virginia Tech in an obvious rebound game at home after a losing streak, I actually think NC State matches up with them very well, although I think this game will be very close. Ultimately, Virginia Tech thrives on playing smart defense and not fouling, but NC State has the perimeter explosiveness to make tough, contested shots with the shotmaking of their guards. Smith and Joiner were fantastic in the win over Duke, and even though its tough to win in Blacksburg, I expected them to remain in rhythm Saturday night. With two evenly matched teams here both really needing a win, I'd rather take the points with NC State, even though I think Virginia Tech escapes with a win.
Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 74, NC State 71
ATS Record: 3-2
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