Wake Forest at Boston College: Preview and Prediction
Wake Forest is on the road again this Saturday for a matchup with the Boston College Eagles.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Wake Forest -2.5
Moneyline: Wake Forest -140, Boston College +120
Total: 139.5
Boston College Team Overview:
Record: 8-9 (2-4)
KenPom: 177th (267th Offensive, 101th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 88-72 at Miami, L 65-64 vs Duke, W 70-63, W 70-63 vs Notre Dame
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Makai Ashton-Langford (12.3 ppg, 3.1 reb, 1.5 stl)
Sr. F Quinten Post (11.0 ppg, 5.8 reb, 51.4 FG%)
So. G Jaden Zackery (10.3 ppg, 3.4 reb, 2.3 ast)
Head coach Earl Grant has his squad playing much closer to the form they harnessed last March. Boston College has proved so far that they are going to be a difficult team to play in their own gym. After a dreadful non-conference slate that saw losses vs Maine (313th on KenPom), Tarleton State (181st) and New Hampshire (282nd), over the last two weeks this team has looked much more competitive.
This group has struggled on the road — which was expected — but they’ve got some good players and Grant has them playing hard. When the Eagles played on the road against Syracuse and Miami, they lost both games by double digits. But BC beat Virginia Tech and Notre Dame at home, and they only lost to Duke by one.
One reason the Eagles have been playing better lately is the return of Dutch big man Quinten Post, who missed the first 13 of the games due to injury. Post can create problems for teams with his skillset at his size. He went for 16 and six rebounds against Duke.
Boston College’s top two guards, Makai Ashton-Langford and Jaden Zackery, have been inconsistent this year but are capable players. Both of them are shooting under 30% from three-point land this season. That isn’t much of a surprise for Ashton-Langford, but it’s a big disappointment for Zackery, who knocked down 47.7% of his triples last year. From the end of November to mid December, Ashton-Langford was averaging 7.0 points per game. But over his last five, he’s been scoring 15.6 per game.
Shooting has been the main problem for this team this season. They currently rank a demoralizing 328th in the nation in true shooting percentage. However, they have kept all three ACC opponents at home under 66 points, so their strength as a unit is clear.
Grant now employs a nine man rotation with Post back in the mix. Other key pieces include freshman wing Prince Aligbe (7.0 ppg, 4.0 reb) a four star recruit. Makai’s brother Demarr Langford (8.0 ppg, 3.1 reb, 2.4 ast) can do a bit of everything, but he struggles as a shooter. He’s coming off of a 20-point performance in the loss at Miami.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 12-5 (4-2)
KenPom: 80th (42nd Offensive, 144th Defensive)
Recent Games: W 90-75 vs Florida State, W 80-72 at Louisville, L 88-79 at North Carolina
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (17.9 ppg, 5.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 46.4 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (11.8 ppg, 6.4 reb, 2.8 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (11.6 ppg, 3.3 reb, 38.4 3PT%)
Winners of four of their last five, Steve Forbes’ Demon Deacons are playing great ball. After a couple of road blowouts at the hands of Clemson and Rutgers before Christmas, we’ve started to learn more about this team’s identity. Forbes’ guys are thriving in his offensive system, and the only teams averaging more than Wake’s 76.9 points per game are North Carolina, NC State and Miami. Elite offensive performances have been the key on this recent stretch of wins, but the defensive problems were exposed in the loss at UNC.
Plenty of firepower was on display in the win Wednesday against Florida State, and the Deacs had three players score 20+ points for the first time since 2005. And the team’s leading scorer, Tyree Appleby, wasn’t even one of them. Damari Monsanto scored 22 points, drilling 6-7 threes and continuing his hot stretch. He’s made 14 threes and is averaging 20 points per game over his last three.
Cameron Hildreth scored a career-high 23 points vs FSU, and has been extremely efficient over the last two games. He’s 17-24 (71%) from the field on the two-game win streak. Andrew Carr went for 22 points on 8-10 shooting. He added three steals and two blocks as well. Carr has been a bit inconsistent this season — over his last eight games, he’s scored exactly five points three times, but 20 or more twice. Over his last four he’s been feeling it from deep, connecting on 7-17 (41%) of his triples.
Appleby didn’t join the 20 point party against the Seminoles, but he still had 16 points and eight assists. The recent surges from Monsanto and Hildreth have taken a lot of pressure off of the fifth year guard, who remains the heartbeat of the team and the engine behind the offense.
While Wake is fourth in the ACC in scoring, they are fourth-worst in scoring defense at 72.4 per game. The season rebounding numbers aren’t terrible, but they aren’t great either. The Deacs are 10th in the league in boards per game, and they’ve been outrebounded in their last two contests.
The Pick: Wake Forest -2.5
Wake Forest ended their three game road skid when they beat Louisville last Saturday, but no away game will be that easy for the rest of the season. Can the Demon Deacons find another win on the road? Boston College has proved to be a very gritty team at home, and the Deacs will have a hard time hitting the 80 point mark that has been common on this recent streak. Even though the roster is very different, revenge will be on this Wake Forest’s team’s mind after the Eagles ended their NCAA Tournament hopes last March. Post was a problem for the Deacs down low in that game, and Wake is much weaker on the defensive interior this season. However, BC is much more offensively challenged, so this makes for quite an interesting contrast of style. The total of 139.5 implies that the first team to 70 will win, and I'm much more confident in the team in black and gold to get there. While the Eagles could scrap together a win in a low scoring affair, I expect the Deacs to do enough to come out with a win.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 73 Boston College 68
Season prediction record
7-9 ATS
12-4 Straight up
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