Wake Forest Basketball vs Rutgers: Preview and Prediction
***EDIT (12/17 11 a.m. ET)
After all signs pointed to Tyree Appleby missing today's action with an ankle injury, he IS active for this game.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: BTN
Spread: Rutgers -11.5
Moneyline: Wake Forest +475, Rutgers -800
Total: 134.5
Rutgers Team Overview
Record: 6-4
KenPom Ranking: 32nd (137th Off, 3rd Def)
Don’t be fooled by the four losses. Head Coach Steve Pikiell has an NCAA Tournament team once again. The Scarlet Knights are coming off of a couple brutal losses in a row. On Dec. 8 playing at Ohio State, the Buckeyes hit a deep three-pointer at the buzzer and Rutgers lost 67-66. On Sunday against Seton Hall, Pikeill’s group scored just five points in the final nine minutes of play, and ended up losing a 45-43 slugfest. Rutgers lost at Miami by seven earlier this season, but in their last home game, they beat No. 14 Indiana by 15.
Rutgers is an elite defensive group, sitting at fifth in the nation in points allowed per game at 54.5. Super senior Caleb McConnell is the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and junior Clifford Omoruyi is a high level athlete and an elite rim protector (1.7 blocks per game). Rutgers is a tall, lengthy and physical team, and they make things incredibly difficult for teams on that end of the floor.
Offensively, the Scarlet Knights are led by Omoruyi (14.4 ppg), who is seventh in the nation with 25 dunks on the season. Loyola Maryland transfer Cam Spencer is second on the team with 12.5 ppg, and also in double figures is forward Aundre Hyatt (11.2 ppg). McConnell (9.7 ppg) adds a spark offensively as well. Freshman guard Derek Simpson played eight scoreless minutes against Seton Hall, but has shown his potential at points this year, scoring 14 points against Indiana.
Key Stat:
Rutgers averages 5.5 made three-pointers per game, which is 321st in the nation. They shoot 30.9% from long range as a team. When Rutgers is knocking down shots from the perimeter and playing elite level defense, they are one of the toughest teams to beat on their home floor in the country.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 8-3
KenPom Ranking: 85th (74th Off, 103rd Def)
It’s been a roller coaster of a four-game stretch for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons were very impressive in a 78-75 road win over Wisconsin on Nov. 29. Three days later, the Deacs were outscored 51-24 in the second half and fell at Clemson, 77-57. In Holiday Hoopsgiving this past Saturday, Wake blew a 20-point lead and lost in the final moments to LSU, 72-70. And on Wednesday at home against Appalachian State, Andrew Carr's fadeaway at the buzzer saved the team in a 67-66 win.
The bad news coming out of the win is that star point guard Tyree Appleby (18.7 ppg, 5.4 apg) sprained his right ankle. Head coach Steve Forbes said postgame that the ankle was giving him problems that week during practice. His status for Saturday is doubtful at best. Appleby is the engine behind this offense, so Wake’s supporting cast will need to step up in his absence.
After being plagued by foul trouble in three straight games, Carr (10.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) stepped up with a 20-point effort, obviously highlighted by his game winner. Daivien Williamson (10.2 ppg) knocked down four threes in 35 minutes, the most action he’s seen since injuring his back in mid-November. Cameron Hildreth (11.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.3 apg) continues to provide a boost offensively, and has now scored in double figures in seven straight contests.
Key Stat:
After being in the starting line up for three consecutive games entering Wednesday night’s battle against App State, both Damari Monsanto (9.2 ppg, 25 3PM) and Zach Keller (2.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg) did not play last time out. Forbes explained postgame that Keller did not play well against LSU, plus Carr absorbed more minutes at the five spot. He also shared that Monsanto was not meeting the team’s standards in practice. It’ll be interesting to see how minutes are distributed Saturday afternoon with no Appleby and two presumptive starters not seeing the court last time out.
Why Rutgers will cover:
The Scarlet Knights have been one of the toughest teams in the nation at home the last few years. They are difficult to score on, and they shoot a higher three-point percentage at home. Wake Forest often relies on Appleby to create offensively, and without his presence the Demon Deacons could really struggle to put points on the board. Not only because of his scoring ability, but also the attention he commands as a ball handler which leads to open shots for others. Appleby is “the heartbeat of the team” according to Forbes, and his impact stretches far beyond the box score. Rutgers is capable of beating most teams in the country by double digits on their home floor, so for a Wake Forest side that needed a miracle to beat Appalachian State and is playing without their best player, this one could get out of hand fast.
Why Wake Forest will cover:
There is a weird phenomenon in sports that when a team misses a key piece that everybody else steps up their game. This could be a moment for backup guard Jao Ituka to have the ball in his hands more, and last season at Marist he showed that he can add a lot of pop to an offense. Wake already secured a road Big Ten victory this season, and even though Appleby was a huge part of that, guys like Hildreth, Marsh and Monsanto were awesome in that game and won’t be intimidated by the environment. Rutgers is the stronger side here, but the Scarlet Knights did only score 43 points last time out. I’d be very surprised if the Deacs can pull out a victory at the RAC without Appleby, but if they take care of the ball and get hot from deep, there’s no reason they can’t at least put up a fight.
The Pick: Rutgers -11.5
I think it’s going to be all Scarlet Knights Saturday afternoon. In front of a raucous home crowd coming off a couple of brutal losses, this is a blowout spot for Rutgers. I expect Pikiell’s group to be suffocating defensively, and for Wake’s young bigs to struggle with the physicality of this team. With McConnell likely guarding Hildreth and Appleby out of the mix, half-court offense could be a real slog for the Deacs. Rutgers is also due for some positive shooting regression. 11.5 is a lot to lay, but it looks like the side to me here.
Score Prediction: Rutgers 68 Wake Forest 52
Season prediction record
5-6 ATS
8-3 Straight up
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