Wake Forest vs Louisville: Preview and Prediction
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Spread: Wake Forest -10
Moneyline: Wake Forest -425, Louisville +350
Total: 143
Louisville Team Overview:
Record: 2-13 (0-4)
KenPom: 265th (315th Offensive, 210th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 70-69 vs Syracuse, L 86-63 at Kentucky, L 76-64 at NC State
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G El Ellis (17.7 ppg, 4.5 ast)
So. F Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (8.1 ppg, 6.3 reb)
Jr. F Jae’lyn Withers (7.7 ppg, 4.7 reb)
In the past decade of ACC Basketball, only two teams have finished the season outside the top 200 in KenPom. 2018 Pittsburgh, and 2016 Boston College. Both of those teams went 0-18 in the ACC.
Louisville, currently well outside the top 250 in KenPom, has been a disaster in every sense of the word this season. Three straight one-point losses to mid-majors at the beginning of the season demoralized the team, who then headed to the Maui Invitational where they were completely and utterly outmatched for three more games. The Cardinals eventually secured two home wins over a decent Western Kentucky team and a 2-10 Florida A&M win to end the fears of a winless season. However, rookie head coach Kenny Payne’s group has been a bit better across their past two ACC games. They were tied early in the second half at NC State, and only lost by one at home to Syracuse. It’s wild to think that those moral victories can mean anything for Louisville basketball, but at this point, they do.
Far too much responsibility is placed on point guard El Ellis, who is the engine behind the offense. As the primary ball handler and the only double-digit scorer and true offensive threat on the team, Ellis has ended up being inefficient (39.0% FGs) and turnover happy (4.7 TOs per game). He’s turned the ball over more than any other player in the nation this season. Ellis can go for 25 on any given night, gets to the line a ton and sets his teammates up for success, but his teammates make the game very difficult for him.
Huntley-Hatfield transferred in from Tennessee after his freshman season. The five-star recruit out of high school still has plenty of potential, but he hasn’t been able to turn that into much scoring production. Junior wing Jae’lyn Withers has been solid but inconsistent this season. He didn’t make a single field goal in the losses at NC State and Kentucky, but scored 10 points and grabbed seven rebounds against Syracuse. Freshman guard Mike James has seen an uptick in minutes recently and turned in a career-high 19 points for the Cardinals against Syracuse. His emergence could be huge for this Louisville team desperate for more offensive production outside of Ellis.
Key Stat(s):
Louisville is dead last in the ACC in points per game (62.0), field goal percentage (40.7%), two-point percentage (45.4%), assists per game (9.0) and turnovers per game (16.9).
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 10-5 (2-2)
KenPom: 87th (63rd Offensive, 108th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 88-79 at North Carolina, W 77-75 vs Virginia Tech W 81-70 vs Duke
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.3 ppg, 5.7 ast, 1.6 stl, 46.2 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (11.3 ppg, 6.3 reb, 2.9 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (10.9 ppg, 3.2 reb, 38.0 3PT%)
Wake Forest led by one over the reigning National Runner-Up North Carolina Tar Heels on the road Wednesday night with 10 minutes left on the clock. However, UNC continued to force turnovers and make big time shots, holding on for the home victory.
The Deacs entered that game rolling after securing back-to-back wins over Duke and Virginia Tech. There’s a slight asterisk on the wins as Duke was missing Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead, while Virginia Tech didn’t have Hunter Cattoor. However, you can’t fault the Deacs for beating the opponent put in front of them.
Other than getting blown out by old, physical teams in Rutgers and Clemson back in December, Wake Forest has proven to be a legitimate threat in the ACC. Once again, Steve Forbes has found a star player in the transfer portal in Ty Appleby, who sends defenses into fits with his ability to create for himself and his teammates off of ball screens. The guys around him have looked increasingly comfortable as of late, but nobody else has been as consistently reliable.
Cameron Hildreth has been the second best player for Steve Forbes’ group for most of the season, posting a triple-double back in late November and scoring in double figures for nine straight games. That streak came to an end against Virginia Tech, and Hildreth was a ghost against Carolina, turning the ball over three times while scoring just two points. He’s had to deal with Virginia Tech’s Justyn Mutts and UNC’s Leaky Black guarding him over the past two games, so look for him to get back into rhythm in this one.
Andrew Carr has been awesome over the last three games, averaging 13.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists over that stretch. His ability to stretch the floor and play off the bounce has led to Appleby and him forming a dynamic pick-and-pop combo. The coaching staff has been much happier with sharpshooter Damari Monsanto as of late, who’s been playing hard on both ends. He scored 17 points, grabbed 7 rebounds and had three steals against UNC. Monsanto is deadly from three-point range, but Forbes has expressed his displeasure with him trying to do too much off of the dribble, which has led to some easy run outs for opposing teams.
Super senior guard Daivien Williamson has looked more like himself the last two games, connecting on 6/11 attempts from distance. Swedish freshman Bobi Klintman struggled to get the ball through the basket in the last two games (2-11 FGs), but he definitely has been providing a spark off the bench. The breakout game for him is coming soon.
Key Stat:
Through the first four games of ACC play, teams are shooting the ball very well against the Deacs. Wake Forest is last in the ACC in effective field goal percentage allowed (55.3%).
The Pick: Wake Forest -7.5
Wake Forest has played four road games this season, all against very good teams. After beating Wisconsin, though, the Deacs have dropped their last three. I see that streak coming to an emphatic end at the KFC Yum Center on Saturday afternoon. There won’t be an easier chance for this group to grab a road win the rest of the season than in this one. While Louisville did take Syracuse down to the wire in their last game, they still turned the ball over 21 times. I do believe the Cardinals have enough talent to put up some good fights at home the rest of this season, but I don’t see this being one of those opportunities. Wake Forest is a significantly better offensive team, and Louisville has only scored over 70 twice this entire season. Plus, a big reason why the Cardinals almost beat Syracuse is because they grabbed 15 offensive rebounds vs the zone. That won’t happen against the Demon Deacons. Forbes won’t let his guys overlook this ACC opponent, and Wake will win by double digits.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 78 Louisville 64
Season prediction record
7-7 ATS
10-4 Straight up
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