Wake Forest vs North Carolina: Preview and Prediction
Wake Forest travels down the road to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina for their first action of the new year.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACCNX
Spread: Wake Forest +10.5
Moneyline: Wake Forest +400 , North Carolina -550
Total: 151.5
North Carolina Team Overview:
Record: 9-5 (1-2)
KenPom: 21st (11th Offensive, 60th Defensive)
Recent Games: L 76-74 at Pitt, W 80-76 vs Michigan, W 89-86 OT vs Ohio State
Leading Scorers:
Sr. F Armando Bacot (18.5 ppg, 11.2 reb, 1.3 blk, 56.7 FG%)
Jr. G Caleb Love (17.5 ppg, 4.1 reb, 3.5 ast)
Jr. G R.J. Davis (15.9 ppg, 5.4 reb, 3.2 ast)
The Tar Heels are the first preseason No. 1 team to lose five games before Jan. 1 in the last 40 seasons. While the five losses and unranked status might hint that this season has been a disaster, this is a bit of an overreaction in my opinion. The metrics still love the Tar Heels, and we know what this team is capable of. Carolina has still beaten No. 24 Ohio State, No. 23 Charleston and Michigan (48th in KenPom), and one of their losses was a four-overtime thriller against No. 7 Alabama. North Carolina displayed their volatility throughout last season, spanning from some head-scratching losses to looking like one of the best teams in the nation in March. The 2022-23 Tar Heels are once again the type of team that could lose in the first round or become National Champions.
READ: Can Wake Forest slow down Armando Bacot?
Led by Armando Bacot, who’s been on a tear as of late (25.3 pts and 11.0 reb over his last three games) UNC is very difficult to defend. Bacot’s big frame and great footwork make him such a challenge to stop down on the blocks, and the team is at their best when they play through him. Based on their scoring outputs, it seems like Caleb Love and R.J. Davis have been great this season. However, the backcourt pair has struggled with efficiency and decision making. The bar is high for those two because of their talent level and what they’ve shown they’re capable of, but they need to step it up if they want to get their team back on the national radar.
Rounding out the starting five are veteran wing defender Leaky Black (6.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg), and Northwestern transfer Pete Nance (11.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg). Black continues to be a glue guy for this unit, and while Nance has been solid, he doesn’t bring the same type of firepower that Brady Manek did.
Hubert Davis still doesn’t really trust his bench, but the Tar Heels received a nice lift on Friday when sophomore guard D’Marco Dunn (3.0 ppg) returned to action after missing a month with a hand injury.
Key Stat:
North Carolina is fifth in the nation in free throw attempts per game (26.0) and third in makes (19.0). Almost one third of the attempts are courtesy of Bacot (8.1).
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 10-4 (2-1)
KenPom: 87th (63rd Offensive, 108th Defensive)
Recent Games: W 77-75 vs Virginia Tech W 81-70 vs Duke, L 81-57 at Rutgers
READ: KenPom predicts Wake Forest’s remaining schedule
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.4 ppg, 5.4 ast, 1.6 stl, 45.0 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.0 ppg, 6.6 reb, 3.0 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (10.5 ppg, 2.9 reb, 38.0 3PT%)
The Deacs are rolling after securing back to back home wins over some of the best teams in the league in Duke and Virginia Tech. There’s a slight asterisk on the wins as Duke was missing Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead, while Virginia Tech didn’t have Hunter Cattoor. You can’t fault the Deacs for beating the opponent put in front of them, and they looked tremendous against Duke. Plus, after getting destroyed by Rutgers, needing a miracle to beat App State, and losing big to Clemson prior to that, it was important for Wake to get back in a rhythm.
Tyree Appleby is scoring and creating at a very high level and he’s been incredibly efficient in the process. Cameron Hildreth’s streak of double figure scoring outputs ended last time out against the Hokies, but his eight points, eight rebounds, four assists, and two steals were crucial in the Demon Deacons securing the win. His emergence has taken some pressure off of Appleby, because he can bring the ball up the floor, as well as serve a strong secondary offensive option with his ability to score in the post.
Damari Monsanto continues to be an x-factor because of his microwave ability from long range. He only played 18 minutes against Virginia Tech, but he drilled a pair of clutch free throws to stretch the lead to four in the last 10 seconds. Andrew Carr had a rough three-game stretch where he only averaged four points per game from Nov. 29 - Dec. 10, but since then he’s won the Deacs a game with the buzzer beater against App State, and over his last four he’s averaging 12.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.0 blocks. Plus, he’s stayed out of foul trouble, which is what killed him during that brutal stretch a month ago. Matthew Marsh (7.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 89.5 FG%) has continued to improve and be solid on the defensive end. He’s also been a dunking machine — and one of the nation’s most efficient scorers.
READ: Week 8 ACC Basketball Power Rankings
Key Stat:
Through the first 10 games of the season, Appleby committed a modest 25 turnovers (2.5 per game). Even though it’s been a 3-1 stretch for the Deacs, he’s given the ball away 23 times over his last four (5.75 per game).
The Pick: North Carolina -10.5
Everything points to this being a bounce back spot for North Carolina and a letdown for Wake Forest. UNC is coming off a tough loss where they blew a lead, and Wake is coming off of back to back home wins over teams missing key players. Plus, the Tar Heels will have revenge on their minds after the 22-point blowout from last January. The Deacs are going to have to do everything right to steal a victory against a talented and ticked off team on the road. Bacot is always tough to deal with, and if Marsh were to get in foul trouble, Forbes might have to play Davion Bradford more minutes than he wants to.
Davis and Love are typically dialed in offensively at home, and Leaky Black will be disruptive on Appleby or HIildreth, whoever he mostly matches up with. Appleby has been incredible this season, but he was stymied in the two road games that Wake got smacked around in this season against Clemson and Rutgers. When Carolina’s guards are engaged they can be very good defensively, and we’ve seen that when teams can slow down Appleby, things can spiral out of control. The metrics rank UNC as a significantly better team for a reason — right now, they are. I believe Wake has a good chance to take down the Tar Heels in Winston-Salem on Feb. 7. ButI think round one is going to be all Carolina.
Score Prediction: North Carolina 82, Wake Forest 65
Season prediction record
7-6 ATS
9-4 Straight up
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