Takeaways from Wake Forest's 30-21 loss to NC State
In Wake Forest’s loss to NC State, the team played sloppy and undisciplined football throughout. They don’t appear to be the same team that took Clemson to double overtime in September or defeated a ranked Florida State squad on the road. Something has changed, and it will take a big rebound for the team to bounce back from the past two weeks and finish the season on a high note. Read below for the rest of my takeaways from last night.
Sam Hartman is an enigma at quarterback
When you look at Hartman’s stat line last night, it looks pretty darn good before the interceptions. The redshirt junior completed 29 of 48 passes for 397 yards and two touchdowns, jumping Philip Rivers for second in the ACC for career passing TD’s. Hartman looked especially good on a do-or-die drive in the fourth quarter, completing two fourth-down throws for a combined 51 yards — the sideline toss to Jahmal Banks was one of his best.
READ: Wake Forest fails to bounce back in 30-21 loss to NC State
But, then there’s the other side of Hartman’s game — the three interceptions. For the second-straight week, in a game where Wake Forest needed every possession they could get, Hartman consistently coughed them up.
As head coach Dave Clawson referenced in his mid-week press conference last week, this is not to say that all the interceptions are solely Hartman’s fault. On his opening drive pick, Hartman didn’t see a safety lurking under the receiver and threw an ill-advised ball — that one is clearly on him.
The third-quarter interception came on fourth down, when Hartman had to get rid of the ball and try to make a play — throwing into heavy coverage wasn’t great but it was returned for 30 yards, basically making the throw a punt. The final turnover looks bad for Hartman at first glance, but like the first pick-six against Louisville, there may have been a route miscommunication/error on the throw. A.T. Perry cut to the inside on his route, but Hartman threw to the outside, as if Perry was supposed to continue on a fly.
Regardless of fault, Hartman is the quarterback, a fifth-year player and captain at that. He threw the interceptions, and for the second week in a row, they proved to be incredibly costly. If Wake Forest is going to win games down the stretch, those turnovers must be eliminated.
Something is very wrong with the running game
Wake Forest threw the ball a lot last night, but they had to. The running game was anemic at best, and in order to get any momentum on a drive, the Deacs had to put the ball in the air. The lead back duo of Justice Ellison and Christian Turner combined for 28 yards on 18 carries — Ellison had -1 yards. Over the past two games, Ellison and Turner have combined for 87 yards on 35 carries (2.5 ypc).
READ: Game Summary - NC State defeats Wake Forest 30-21
When the ground game sputters like that, it’s understandable how Wake Forest can get themselves into trouble. Opponents are able to bring a dedicated pass rush and focus on coverage with nearly every snap because they know the Deacs will have to throw the ball, especially when the offense gets off schedule. That puts Wake Forest at a severe disadvantage.
Wake’s rushing problems appear to be two-fold. The backs, at times, clearly struggle to get vertical and spend too much time cutting horizontally. But, the play offensive line has severely hindered Ellison and Turner’s ability to find a hole — against NC State, no OL had a run blocking grade over 68 per PFF. And the highest grade went to Je’Vionte’ Nash, who only saw 11 run blocking snaps in the game due to injury.
Whatever the problem is, something has to change. Wake cannot win games as a one-dimensional offense.
It might be time for Wake Forest to change their coin toss strategy
Per usual, when the Deacs won the toss last night, they deferred to get the ball to start off the second half. Especially for a team like Wake Forest, that is a winning strategy — with the pace of the Deacons’ offense, they often have the chance to steal a possession or two.
We’ve seen it the past two weeks — Wake Forest has gotten the ball with just enough time to close the half with a scoring drive and then double dip by getting it back after halftime. But, the problem is that they’ve squandered those opportunities.
READ: Key Stats from Wake Forest's 30-21 loss to NC State
Against Louisville, the offense looked good at the end of the half, gaining 56 yards to reach the Cardinals’ red zone. But, in the process, the time was mismanaged and Wake Forest was forced to take a shot at the end zone instead of kicking the field goal. A good drive came away with no points. Then, coming out of the half, Hartman threw his first of two pick-sixes, which spelled the beginning of the end for the Deacs.
Against NC State, this game management problem was even more evident. With a minute and a half left on the clock, Wake Forest burned time with a short pass to Jahmal Banks. Then, two incompletions led to a three-and-out — another missed opportunity. Coming out of the half, Wake put up another three-and-out when they were stuffed at the line on a third-and-short. From there, NC State embarked on a 15-play touchdown drive that took over seven minutes off the clock. That two-drive sequence was likely the most consequential for Wake Forest in the entire game.
When managed well, the Deacs’ strategy of starting with the ball out of halftime is a sound one, but the combination of play calling and execution turns it into a disadvantage — one that has been a key fixture in Wake Forest’s losses over the past two weeks.
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