How Far Can West Virginia Go in the Big 12 Tournament?

March Madness has arrived.

Wednesday evening, the West Virginia Mountaineers will kick off postseason play in the Big 12 Conference tournament against the No. 9 seed, Texas Tech. The winner of that game will move on to the quarterfinals with the pleasure of meeting up with regular season champ, Kansas.

As far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned, the Mountaineers shouldn't have a single thing to worry about after defeating Iowa State on the road and then following that up with a win over No. 11 Kansas State to close out regular season play. So the pressure is off in that regard.

However, they can use this week to improve their seeding in the big dance with an extended stay in Kansas City. How likely is it that West Virginia can make a run? More likely than people think.

I won't spend much time on Texas Tech because I believe the Mountaineers will take care of business and move on. Head coach Mark Adams was recently suspended by the program following comments he made to a player, which will certainly have some impact on the game. Things just haven't clicked for the Red Raiders this year and knowing that they have to win the tournament to get in is a tough mindset to deal with.

Yes, I know Kansas seems unbeatable for WVU, especially when playing in Lawrence or in this event. But there's something about this year's group that leads me to believe they can pull off the upset. Not saying that they will, but it's possible. They're playing much better defensively over the last month or so and have also managed to iron out their issues at the free throw line, shooting 92/112 (82%) over the last six games.

Most importantly, this team is making shots which is the No. 1 key to advancing in tournaments. Erik Stevenson, in particular, has caught fire of late with five consecutive games of registering at least 23 points. In two of those games, he notched 27, including Saturday's win over K-State.

Stevenson is going to find his shots and get his points, that's a given. But the recent surge of Emmitt Matthews Jr. is what has me believing WVU can make a run. Over the last eight games, Matthews is averaging 13.6 points per game and has shot 43/80 (54%) from the field.

Unlike year's past, this Kansas team is certainly vulnerable. Earlier this season, they suffered a rare three-game losing streak which consisted of losses to Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor. Not to mention, that was a 23-point HOME loss to TCU. In their five Big 12 losses, there is a consistent theme - awful three-point shooting and carelessness with the basketball. Just how bad is it? In those losses, they shot a combined 31/114 (27%) from three-point range and averaged 15.6 turnovers per game.

In Kansas' two wins over WVU, they have shot 21/44 (47%) from three. That's been the difference. The encouraging thing is, the Mountaineers have forced 32 turnovers in those two games. If they can limit Kansas' shot-making ability from deep, they absolutely have a chance to advance to the semifinals.

If WVU somehow manages to get past Kansas, that will set them up for a semifinals date with either Baylor or Iowa State...most likely Baylor. If that's the case, I think this is where the road ends for the Mountaineers. The Bears are deep and their backcourt play is just too dominant. LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler, and Keyonte George can be a handful. If it's Iowa State, it's certainly a winnable game, but the Cyclones typically have a strong showing from its fans at the Big 12 tournament which could make things challenging.

The furthest I could see this team going is to the semifinals, but I'm not sure if they can get past Kansas. The most likely outcome is that they defeat Texas Tech, fall to Kansas, and head to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed with a 19-14 overall record.

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