Bad News for WVU? Matchup Predictor Gives Strong Prediction for Matchup with BYU

Looking at the Mountaineers' chances to advance in the Big 12 Conference tournament.

Feb 28, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Treysen Eaglestaff (52) shoots a three pointer over BYU Cougars guard Robert Wright III (1) during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

For the second time in less than two weeks, West Virginia and BYU will clash on the hardwood, and this time, there's a spot in the Big 12 Conference quarterfinals on the line.

The Mountaineers won the first matchup in Morgantown by a 79-71 score. Can they top the Cougars again and pick up their 19th win of the season?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has just a 31.9% chance to take down the Cougars again and advance to the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, BYU has a 68.1% chance to get even with the Mountaineers.

Look, I fully understand why BYU is a heavy favorite in this one. It's going to be tough for WVU to beat this team a second time, especially on a neutral floor, and just one night after AJ Dybantsa set a tournament record of 40 points. However, I think the analytics aren't giving West Virginia enough love here. Their defensive tenacity will give them a chance and if they can replicate what they did against Dybantsa in the first half of the previous matchup, they could move on.

West Virginia's recent games

WVU's final stretch of the season was brutal, but I guess it depends on how you want to view it. They lost four of their final six games, featuring really bad losses to Utah and Kansas State, but won two of their final three coming into the Big 12 Tournament, taking down these very BYU Cougars and UCF, both of which are in position to go dancing. The Mountaineers' offense looked as good as it has all season in the regular season finale win over UCF, shooting 45% from the floor and receiving 25 attempts at the free throw line. The trio of Honor Huff, Brenen Lorient, and Chance Moore was phenomenal, combining for 51 of the 79 points for WVU.

BYU's recent games

Much like WVU, BYU had a strange end to the season. They lost to UCF by 13, lost at WVU, and got demolished by Cincinnati before putting a bow on things by springing the upset of No. 10 Texas Tech. In the opening round of the Big 12 tournament, they scored the most points in a Big 12 game, putting up 105, shooting an incredible 55% from the floor. Dybantsa had an unreal night as previously mentioned, connecting on 15/21 shots.